Monday, December 29, 2008

Dallas Cowboys Season 2008 Analysis

Unless Jerry Jones springs a surprise, change should be in the air for the Cowboys. Not since 1976 have the Cowboys experienced such a disappointing season. Ironically, the two seasons are similar. In 1976, the Cowboys began 5-0 and looked unbeatable. Then Roger Staubach broke his little finger and the once potent offense experienced a slow death. The Cowboys only managed to limp into the playoffs thanks to a fairly weak division. Their struggles continued at home against the Rams in the first round. But behind and all but dead 14-10, Charlie Waters blocked a Rams punt and the Cowboys recovered on the Rams 18 yard line to bring up our hopes of yet another miracle. On 4th and 10, Staubach completed a pass to DuPree but he was tackled about an inch short of the first down. Goodbye game and season.

Now this season is over for the Cowboys, it is time to put all the frustration and anger aside and evaluate the team and coaches objectively. This is what I hope Jerry Jones does. Although my evaluation will probably have no influence whatsoever, I will do my best. I will cover the different facets of the team. I will use the term “gets a pass.” This term means the person should be allowed to stay with the Cowboys next year, not necessarily that they did well this year. I am also not factoring cap considerations and contracts. I am simply evaluating the team in football terms.

Defensive Line

I think the defensive line was pretty good this year. Jay Ratliff made substantial progress and the other lineman played well for the most part. I do not think Dallas has any real concerns here. Tank Johnson is a serviceable backup all things considered and the line was able to put a good amount of pressure on quarterbacks this season. They were sometimes inconsistent in stopping the run, but I think other factors contributed to that.

Linebackers

I also believe our linebackers did pretty well except for their lack of interceptions. Zach Thomas has probably seen his last year in the NFL but if he wants to come back, I see no reason why he shouldn’t. I do feel a little sorry for him because the team he loves, the Dolphins, rose from the dead this year and he was not a part of it. Our line backing core has speed and they usually make tackles unless they are dispirited. This trait is common to most defences.

Secondary

The Cowboys secondary has real issues. As a side note, if safety Roy Williams had been healthy, Baltimore would not have made those two heartbreaking long runs at the end of the game in week 16. The main problem with the secondary is they are not that good. Consider how much pressure the front seven applied on quarterbacks this year, particularly in the second half of the season. You would think with all that pressure, the secondary would have had more interceptions. But I believe we only had four for the entire year. You’ve got to be kidding me! This is a real problem for the Cowboys. They simply have no hope of covering speedy receivers, and forget about receivers such as Fitzgerald and Moss. The lack of interceptions was a real killer for us this year because interceptions can really be momentum changers. Our offense, as bad as it was in the second half, had very few breaks to give it some help. The only good player back there is Newman. Orlando Scandrick showed signs while Jenkins was a disappointment overall. Rookie corners seldom make a huge impact in the NFL though, so Jenkins should get a pass.

As for Adam Jones, I believe he should also get a pass if only to see whether a completed season plus next year’s training camp minus the distractions, can help him improve. Adam Jones did make some good plays at corner and we should not let the Philadelphia meltdown influence us too much. The way the Cowboys played against the Eagles in Philadelphia, they would not have defeated a team comprised of boys under 10 years of age. Pacman was not the only pathetic player for the Cowboys. He did not deliver the spectacular returns on punts and kick-offs we hoped for, but we should expect a loss in speed and in moves after his layoff. Maybe next year, and we always have Felix Jones for kick-off returns.

Something needs to be done about the secondary. We simply need more interceptions and I think Henry will probably have to go although he is not really a bad player. He’s just not a really good player either.

Offensive Line

I think the right side of the Cowboys line is in good shape. Davis and Colombo are pretty good. Colombo can fire up the team. Both pull pretty well and I would say the right side of the line was definitely our strong side this year. Davis did not have the year he had last year, but it was OK and he should get a pass.

Andre Gurode seems to be a good center as well. A lot of people said he did not deserve to make the Pro Bowl. Perhaps not, but he was voted there, which shows he must be doing something right. He did seem to have a few high snaps to Romo in the shotgun this season, though, and I do not know whether it was just me noticing this more, or whether this was the case. Gurode gets a pass.

Our left offensive line is a train wreck. Despite Flozel Adams’ seemingly endless false start penalties, he has been a good servant for the team. I think his injury in 2006 was a major factor in the Cowboys slide into December oblivion. But he simply cannot deal with fast pass rushers any longer and he does not pull well anymore. The team needs to determine whether this is due to injury or age. Cory Procter clearly struggled at left guard this year but stayed in despite the team’s best efforts to leave him on the bench. The Dallas offensive line was clearly better with Kyle Kosier playing and hopefully, he will be ready to go next season.

In summary, Colombo and Davis get passes as does Kosier. It may be time to replace Adams. Procter is a good backup lineman but is definitely not a starter at guard so I would give Procter a pass as a backup. To me, the real question on the offensive line is Pat McQuistan. He does not seem to have improved enough to be a starter, but I cannot say I’ve seen enough of him to judge. It might be time to look for another backup.

Tight End

Witten and Bennett are keepers. They can block, and they can catch. Witten is, in my opinion, the best tight end in football. This is a no brainer. One could only wish every position was as easy to analyze.

Quarterback

Romo should get a pass. He is a good quarterback. I really believe his broken little finger is responsible for much of his second half woe. I mentioned this above. If you look at Romo’s passing, I think it is pretty clear that in the second half, he struggled throwing to the left side of the field. Throws to the left side hung up in the air and lacked the zip of yore. This clearly reflects a finger that is not entirely healed despite the medical reports we get. If I am right, some of Romo’s poor decisions can be explained. Don’t get me wrong. Romo did make poor decisions, but I think at least some of these have to do with not being able to do what he is usually able to do. This is hard to get used to.

The Cowboys running game suffered a second half meltdown, basically, after the Washington game and this put increasing pressure on Romo. The rushing numbers do not tell the full story. In the last few games, our main rushing gains were on draws, and a lot of those were on second and long. Romo had a lot more pressure on him than he should have. I think these are two important mitigating factors in favour of Romo so I will give Romo a pass and I will also add that Romo is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.

As for backup QB, a slug can tell we need change there. Brad Johnson is obviously out. But is Bollinger? We haven’t seen enough of him to know. This will depend on who is available.

Running Backs

Barber was obviously much more debilitated than we wanted to believe. Give Barber a pass. He wasn’t himself after the Seattle game and this hurt the team. Choice was excellent. You need someone like Barber to pound the defense toward the end of games. As for Felix Jones, he is lights out! I can’t wait to see him back and healthy next year. We lost a lot when he went down to a toe injury. Barber, Jones and Choice will give the Cowboys their own version of Earth, Wind, and Fire although hopefully, we’ll come up with another nickname.

I would also like to see Deon Anderson used more in the offense. He is a good fullback. It might also be interesting in some formations to put Barber in as fullback with Felix Jones as a tailback. If that doesn’t give opposing defences nightmares, I don’t know what will.

Receivers

No other position requires emotionless objectivity as much as receiver. Is Owens a “cancer” or not? As fans, we do not know. I found it interesting that the media sided with ESPN whereas some of the Cowboys players sided with Owens. What do we expect the media to say, that ESPN is garbage? On the other hand, the media could have been right on the mark. So I’ll make some football observations.

Why were Romo and Williams continually out of sync? This is one question the team needs to answer. The team also needs to decide whether Owens can defeat press coverage or not. The jury is still out on that one in my opinion.

Owens does make plays and I think he should get a pass. He seems to handle a scrambling quarterback and he is deadly after the catch. Owens has to be doubled nearly every time and this should open things up for others. This is theory, of course, but there is no doubt Owens gets attention and you need players like this.

As for Crayton and Austin, I have always felt Crayton is a number three receiver but I actually like Austin better in the slot. I believe it was obvious Williams and Romo had communication problems and I would have started Crayton, although this would have been a big ego hit to Williams – whom I believe is a good receiver. Crayton was familiar with the offense.

Receivers do not grow on trees so I would give passes to both Crayton and Austin. Hopefully, Williams and Romo will do better together next season.

Here is one thought. I believe T. J. Houshmandzadeh is a free agent next year. He is definitely a good receiver. If the team decides to let Owens go, which I feel would be a mistake, Houshmandzadeh might be a nice pickup.

Special Teams

Special teams managed to mess up at least once per game. By and large, our returns of kickoffs were not that good although Austin probably did the best. Our punt returns were terrible and our coverages were bad. Folk was told to kick directionally, but this did not seem to help overall. We seemed to suffer our share of having our kicks blocked.

McBriar is a good punter and will help when he returns next year. Nick Folk is a very good field goal kicker and also gets a pass. As for coaching, the special teams coaching staff needs to go.

Coordinators and Head Coach

There will be a great deal of analysis revolving around coaching in the off season, but I think Ray Lewis provides Garrett with the best analysis possible. Lewis said, in effect, the Cowboys offense was one of the simplest offenses in football. Perhaps there is no greater indictment against Garrett than Ray Lewis calling out Cowboys offensive plays during the Ravens game. Having said this, when the Cowboys woke up and started passing for all they were worth in the 4th quarter, the Ravens #2 defense turned into a sieve allowing the cowboys 17 points in that 4th quarter.

Before throwing Garrett under the bus, however, there are some things to consider. There are two basic offensive philosophies in the NFL. The first is to run a simple offense executed well. The general idea here is even if the defense knows what you intend to do, you do it better than they can stop you. Keep in mind even in simple offensive mode, there are times when you try to fool the defense. I am speaking in general terms here. One of the best examples of this philosophy was the Cowboys offense under Turner during the glory years, and also in 1994 and 1995. Note that Garrett was the third quarterback under that system. This philosophy works well if the team is disciplined, commits few penalties, and executes at a high level. This philosophy has the advantage of generating few mistakes while at the same time generating consistency of play.

The second philosophy is to rely on deception and confusing the defense. Again, I am speaking in generalities because execution is always desirable. This form of offense usually has a lot of movement and misdirection. One of the best examples of this system was “The Greatest Show on Turf.” This works well if you have playmakers and if you have speed. Because it is high risk, the losses can be great but so can the gains.

I think the prevailing philosophy today is the simpler is better philosophy. As I said, this does not mean misdirection is not used. I am speaking in terms of general philosophy. The Giants are the best exponent today of the simpler is better approach and the Panthers certainly employ it.

As I said, Garrett grew up, as it were, with this approach. It should come as no surprise, then, that Garrett employs this philosophy. Unfortunately for Garrett, the Cowboys are not a disciplined team and they execute poorly. Penalties killed us this year putting us in numerous second and third and long situations. This is not Garrett’s fault. The meltdown of the running game and the left side of the offensive line also hurt Garrett. In short, this philosophy should not be used against Garrett. He might need to move a little toward the other philosophy, but not too much so. Better executing will solve a lot of problems.

Dallas also tended to perform much better offensively in the second half of games than in the first half, showing Garrett is capable of making adjustments. I believe Garrett failed to understand the offense works better when it is up tempo. Obviously, up tempo is no good when trying to close out games, but it should definitely be the modus operandi of the Cowboys for much of the game. Garrett should take a leaf from the Patriots and use up tempo pass first run second approaches at times. The Cowboys also need more short quick hitting plays and, when needed, use the short passing game as a substitute for the running game. You will not always be able to run but these are things which can help mitigate the problem when it occurs.

If Garrett makes these adjustments, I believe he will be a good offensive coordinator. I believe Garrett gets a pass for next year. Just reducing penalties will help.

Stewart is another matter. The Cowboys defense was terrible in the first half and the passive approach certainly did not help. Phillips rescued the defense somewhat, but the secondary remains a problem. As far as I can see, Stewart is there because he is Wade’s friend. He has not helped the defense, but of course, I can only look at game day situations. And since the secondary is lousy, Campo must also depart. With a weak secondary, Dallas had no business employing a passive defense, hoping the opposing team would make a mistake. For this philosophy alone, Stewart should go. Phillips more aggressive approach has its problems too, but at least the defense started to have a pulse in the second half.

Now to Phillips. Of course, with the anger of this lost season I would sack Phillips before letting him board the plane back to Valley Ranch. But since I attempt to analyze the Cowboys objectively, let’s Examine Phillips more carefully. A coach is difficult to analyze because he is so many things: tactician, teacher, motivator, spokesman, spinner, and mediator and perhaps most importantly, a talent evaluator. We also have to factor Jerry Jones into the equation. How much control does Phillips actually have?

When coaches have full control, the Cowboys generally do better so if Wade allows himself to be pushed around, he is not a good fit for Dallas. Parcells’ Cowboys failed to make the playoffs for two out of his four years, but Parcels inherited a train wreck while Phillips inherited a solid team which had made the playoffs.

As fans, we cannot see team chemistry issues during practice. We only have game day to examine. But there is no question team chemistry was a problem this year. The team was undisciplined and suffered from a general lack of motivation. But even more than this, the team suffered from a lack of backbone during crunch time. You might argue that under Parcells the Cowboys also suffered December fade-outs and failed to win a playoff game. However, Dallas should have beaten Seattle were it not for a freakish special teams play by Romo, or, rather, a freakish lapse. Under Parcells the Cowboys also suffered a freak special teams disaster against the Redskins which cost them a game that might have helped them win the NFC East. Basically, the Cowboys showed much more backbone under Parcells in crunch time, though the results might not indicate this on the surface.

You almost get the feeling watching Dallas, that Phillips is thinking: “Oh no, here we go again, just like Denver and buffalo” and this pervades the team. The team needs steel at the helm and Phillips is not that steel. I don’t know if Garrett is either. The coach needs to bring in players who want discipline and who demand high standards for themselves and the team. Tom Coughlin was probably too much steel until he mellowed a bit in 2007. Phillips is too much like Fred Flintstone and I don’t see him developing steel any time soon. The fact is nice guys do not always make good head coaches. I think Parcells was a bit too much steel also for this particular team so the team needs someone ¾ Parcells and ¼ Phillips. I don’t quite know who that is but I’m pretty sure it is not Phillips.

GM

I don’t care if Jerry Jones wants to remain as GM so long as he has good advisors. In terms of the draft this is crucial, particularly since we lack a first round pick next year. As for taking risks, I think Jones has actually done OK. Tank Johnson has not been spectacular, but he is serviceable. Owens has performed well overall and all any fan has to do is recall life without Owens, you know, when the Cowboys could not stretch defences and lacked an explosive threat. As for Adam Jones, again, why not take the risk? He played OK at corner and should get better with extended playing time. We can only hope. Besides, this is his team so we are stuck with Jones as GM. Ireland was a huge loss to us and I can only hope the brains trust Jones puts in place in the off season will draft well and get the right kind of free agents.

I think the biggest areas of concern are the secondary and the left side of the offensive line. Kosier might help alleviate the need for drastic action if he recovers, but the secondary needs help and this is where the Cowboys free agency dollars need to go. Both the safety and corner positions need an upgrade. In fairness to Jerry Jones, he did try to upgrade corner this year, which is why Adam Jones was acquired and Michael Jenkins was drafted. If these two players improve, then again, perhaps the need is not great. But the team needs to think long and hard before trusting Jenkins and Jones to carry the load.

This was a very disappointing year. But I’ll be back to watch the Cowboys next year, just like I have since 1971 when I was eight years old. They may have disappointed this year, but they will always be the team I support no matter what. At least now I can enjoy the playoffs as a neutral supporter instead of getting frustrated and angry nearly every week, or nearly collapsing with relief when the Cowboys managed to win a game they needed. Let the games continue!

Sunday, December 21, 2008

After the Fiasco Against the Ravens

You certainly have to give Dallas credit for one thing. They find creative ways to screw up, ways that haunt their fans for years. This is the team who brought us the Leon Lett game and Jackie Smith dropping a sure touchdown from Staubach in Super Bowl 13. And of course, who can forget Philadelphia recovering a fumble on their own one yard line and returning it 99 yards for the touchdown that wiped out the Cowboys playoff chances in 1974. In Super Bowl 5, all Craig Morton had to do was take the game into overtime. Instead he threw an interception which allowed the Colts rookie kicker to win the Super Bowl with three freaking seconds left!

The 80’s gave us the 12 men on the field Detroit field goal as time ran out to give the Lions a three point victory over Dallas they should never have had. Then there was the catch game which in and of itself was a standard two minute drive type game, but the Cowboys were off sides on 4th and short on that drive before “the catch” ever happened.

In addition to the Leon Lett game in the 90’s, the Cowboys also gave their fans the Dumb and Dumber sequence which cost them a game against the Eagles. I am probably leaving out a few creative losses, such as the seemingly endless string of 13-12 defeats suffered when the Cowboys went into freefall after the glory years of the early 90’s.

But the Cowboys of this decade have surpassed anything done by previous teams. Who can forget trying to kick the winning field goal against the Redskins in 2006, only to have the kick blocked, and a 15 yard personal foul penalty tacked on so the Redskins could kick the winning field goal with no time left on the clock. And of course, we all remember Romo mishandling the snap against Seattle in the playoffs that same year which would have given the Cowboys the lead with less than 30 seconds left in that game. Last year Westbrook purposely refrained from running into the end zone to ice a 10-6 upset over Dallas in Texas Stadium. Then we had that farce in the playoffs in which the Cowboys held the ball for over 10 minutes to score a touchdown, only to see the Giants answer back with one of their own in just a few seconds.

Having said all this, I have never seen anything like what happened against the Ravens! Never. I have seen teams get gashed for a long rushing touchdown right at the end of the game. It does happen. The defense is trying to stop the run and the running back pops through. But I have never seen this happen twice in a row. Never! You’ve got to be kidding me! How can you give up a 77 and then an 82 yard touchdown run on successive plays? Everyone in the known universe knows the Ravens are going to run and it still does not matter. Only the Cowboys could lose this way, really! OK, maybe the Texans suffered a similar epic meltdown against the Colts this year but that was your standard turnover which led to a touchdown. Even Buffalo’s brain cramp against the Jets was your standard turnover that should never have happened variety screw-up. But how does a 9-5 team with playoff aspirations allow a team to have two 70 plus touchdown runs on successive plays when everyone knows they are going to run the ball! Once is bad enough, but as I said, that happens sometimes. I recall Philadelphia doing this to Dallas once in the 80’s. Twice, though, is beyond absurd. If ever there was a game for throwing something through the TV, this one was it. Fortunately for my TV, this year’s Cowboys are not worth the cost of a new television.

Now that I have finished ranting, the Cowboys can still make the playoffs and I will always support them. Texas Stadium is no more, unless the Cowboys make the playoffs as the fifth seed and play the sixth seed in the NFC championship game. So let’s just say Texas Stadium is gone. The Cowboys have also given their fans many thrilling moments and I guess you take the good with the bad. After all, the Cowboys have won five Super Bowl titles. It could be worse. We could be the New Orleans Saints or Philadelphia Eagles, two teams who have never tasted a championship. Heck, we could be the Lions. The fact that we Cowboys fans scream and yell in frustration, and complain about Romo, Phillips, Owens and various other players and coaches shows that we are spoiled. We expect, we demand good teams because we are so used to having so many of them. From 1966 to 1984 we missed the playoffs one time, and it took a freak play to keep us out that one time. We were the first wild card team to make it to the Super Bowl and even though we lost, that was an unexpectedly good team. We went from 1-15 in 1989 to three out of four Super Bowls a few years later and were it not for a spate of first quarter turnovers against the 49ers in January of 1995, we probably would have won that year’s Super Bowl as well.

A lot of NFL fans are used to bad teams or used to failure at the last hurdle. The Eagles made it to three consecutive NFC championship games and lost. We did the same in the early 80’s. But the Eagles went one better than us. They made it to a 4th consecutive one and got over that hurdle only to lose by three points in the super Bowl against the Patriots. At least when we lost our three consecutive NFC championship games, we had two Super Bowl titles behind us, and we got three more in the 90’s. These helped take away the pain of those early 80’s teams. But the Eagles have nothing.

So in the end, yes this year’s Cowboys are frustrating. They may not make the playoffs. If they don’t, they will be one of the more disappointing teams in franchise history. But we Cowboys fans are always disappointed when our team does not do well, because those of us who have been fans for a long time are not used to failure. We don’t like failure. And this is something today’s players need to understand. We will cheer for T.O. and Romo, and Williams and Witten, and our defense no matter what happens. We may boo the players at times but it is because we know what our teams should be and what our teams once were. True Cowboys fans will never allow our team to accept failure.

So to this year’s players I say, everyone needs help once in a while. Let’s hope you get that help so you can go into Philadelphia next week knowing you can redeem the season. In a way, it will be satisfying if the Cowboys ruin yet another Eagles season by knocking them out of the playoff hunt and scraping in themselves, in a do or die match for both teams.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Week 16 Algorithm Picks

There are some big games this week.  Here are the algorithm’s picks.  I hope it does better than last week but there were some surprising results.  It correclty predicted Indianapolis would cover the 6.5 points they were giving so here are the rest of the predictions.

Game Algorithm Predictions Personal Comments
Ravens +4 @ Cowboys
Total: 39.5
Take the Ravens and the Over I personally think the Cowboys will win this game and cover, but these are not my predictions.  Everyone is talking about how Romo will be affected by the Ravens defense.  Baltimore has a rookie QB.  Think of how much he will be affected by the Dallas D.
Bengals +3 @ Browns
total: 32.5
Take the Bengals and the Over. The Bengals are playing better football.
Steelers –2 @ Titans
Total: 34.5
Take the Titans and the Over The algorithm predicts a Tennessee win. 
49ers –5.5 @ Rams
Total: 43.5
Take the 49ers and the under. The 49ers are the NFC’s submarine team.
Chargers +3.5 @ Buccaneers
Total: 42.5
Take the Chargers and the over. You know everyone wants to see Denver lose and San Diego win.
Dolphins –3.5 @ Chiefs
Total: 39.5
Take the Dolphins and the over.  
Saints –7 @ Lions
Total: 50.5
Take the Saints and the over Come on Detroit.  Don’t go 0-16.  Nothing against the Saints, but no one should want to see a team go 0-16.
Cardinals +7.5 @ Patriots
total: 45.5
Take the Cardinals and the over. The algorithm predicts Patriots 31, Cardinals 24.
Texans –7 @ Raiders
total: 43.5
Take the Texans and the under. The Texans are the AFC submarine team.
Bills +6.5 @ Broncos
Total: 45
Take the Bills to cover the points.  The algorithm predicts 45 points will be scored so it cannot pick the over/under. Go Bills.  I want to see the Denver, San Diego showdown for the AFC West next week.
Jets –4.5 @ Seahawks
total: 43.5
Take the Jets and the Under I personally say take the Seahawks.  It’s the last home game for the coach who is pretty popular.  This is a dangerous game for the Jets.
Falcons #3 @ vikings
Total: 43
Algorithm says take the over.  It also predicts the Vikings by 3 so cannot pick against the line. This should be a great game.  The Vikings are starting to scare me a little.  Will Jackson revert?  This is the question.
Eagles –5 @ Redskins
total: 38.5
Take the Eagles and the Over I hate the say this, but Go Redskins Go!
Panthers +3 @ Giants
Total: 37.5
Take Carolina and the Over I have the feeling the Giants will bounce back.  Even though the Panthers are 2-0 against the Cowboys in the playoffs, I would rather play them in Carolina for the NFC championship.
Packers +4 @ Bears
Total: 41
Take the Bears and the Over. The Packers have given up.  This should be a Bears cakewalk.  The only thing I can think of for GB is Rogers may feel he has something to prove.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Week 15 Algorithm Picks

Another big week in the NFL approaches and it is time for the Algorithm to try to redeem itself.  What a difference a year makes.

Game Algorithm Predicts Personal Comments
49ers +6.5 @ Dolphins
total: 41.5
Take the 49ers and the Under San Francisco and Houston are the two submarine teams of 2008.  That is, you don’t want to play either team right now.
Buccaneers +3 @ Falcons
Total: 44.5
Take the Buccaneers and the over This is a tough one to pick. 
Redskins –7 @ Bengals
total: 36.5
Take the Redskins and the under Unless the Redskins score 37 points, take the under on this one.
Chargers –6.5 @ Chiefs
total: 45.5
Take the Chargers and the over. I don’t trust San Diego.  The problem is I trust Kansas City is bad.  Actually, though, I think there is hope in KC for next year.
Packers –1.5 @ Jaguars
total: 45
Take Green Bay and the over. Who knows.  Who cares.  Rogers still has something to prove though.  That’s the only thing I can think about with respect to this game.
Titans –3 @ Texans
total: 45
Take the Titans and the over  
Seahawks -2.5 at Rams
total: 43
Take the Seahawks and the under  
Lions +17 @ Colts
Total: 45
Take the Colts and the over No matter what the line is, take the Colts.  Come on Detroit, this is the game I want you to win.
Bills +7.5 @ Jets
Total: 41
Take the Jets and the over The Jets have to break out after the last two weeks.
Vikings +3 @ Cardinals
total: 47
Take the Vikings and the over I think the Vikings are a good bet here.  Arizona cannot run at eh best of times.  The Minnesota D represents the worst of times.
Patriots –7 @ Raiders
Total: 39.5
Take the Patriots and the over.  
Steelers +2.5 @ Ravens
Total: 34
Take the Ravens and the over. The algorithm actually picks the Ravens to win by 5.
Broncos +7.5 @ Panthers
Total: 48
Take Carolina.  The algorithm also predicts 48 points will be scored so it cannot pick the over/under. Come on Denver!
Giants +3 @ Cowboys
Total: 45
Take the Giants and the under How are the Cowboys favored here?
Browns +14 @ Eagles
Total: 39
Take the Eagles.  The algorithm also picked 39 points to be scored in this game. Even if the Browns wanted to try, which they don’t, take the Eagles.

After this week’s drama in Dallas, the team will either explode and die out for this season, or win the Super Bowl.  There is no in between now.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

New Orleans at Chicago Prediction

Another bad week for my algorithm.  Another bad week for Cowboys fans.  I’m still trying to recover from that Pittsburgh game.  Last week, the algorithm went as follows:

Straight up: 10/15 making -$197.46

Line: 4/14 (not good) making -$619.05

Over/Under: 5/14 (not much better) making -$442.91

Despite the pathetic showing the beat rolls on.  Here is what the algorithm predicts for the New Orleans @ Chicago game.

Game Algorithm Predicts Personal Comments
Saints +3 @ Bears
Total: 46
Take New Orleans and the over. The algorithm actually predicts New Orleans will win this game.  I do not personally buy this because the Saints are not so good on the road.

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Week 14 Predictions

San Diego finally played well on Thursday night.  Here are the rest of the predictions for week 14.

Game Algorithm Predicts Comments
Jaguars +6.5 @ Bears
Total: 40
Take the Jaguars and the Over Personally, I wouldn’t take the Jaguars if my life depended on it.
Texans +5.5 @ Packers
total: 47
Take Green Bay and the Over Can the Packers D stop anyone?
Vikings –10 @ Lions
total: 45.5
Take the Vikings and the over. Suspensions?  Doesn’t matter for this game.
Bengals +13.5 at Colts
Total: 42
Take the Colts and the Under Unless the Colts score 43 points, I don’t see the over for this one.
Browns +14 at Titakns
total: 37.5
Take the titans and the Over  
Eagles +7 @ Giants
total: 43
Take the Giants and the over. If distractions will hurt the Giants for any game, it will be this one.  Still, I think they have too much for the Eagles who are inconsistent.
Falcons +3 @ Saints
total: 51.5
Take Atlanta and the Over  
Dolphins pick ‘3m @  Bills via Toronto
Total: 42
Take the bills and the Over Personally, I’d take the Dolphins.  This is kind of a neutral field.  If the Bills had a pulse this year, it would have been more of a Bills crowd.
Patriots –4.5 @ Seahawks
Total: 43`
Take the Patriots and the over.  
Chiefs +9 @ Broncos
total: 49
Take the Broncos and the Over  
Jets –4 @ 49ers
Total: 44.5
Take the Jets and the Over The 49ers are not as bad as their record suggests.  I also like Sean Hill.  I like Farve more, but SF may put up a good fight.
Rams +14 at Cardinals
Total: 48
Take the Cardinals.  The algorithm also predicts 48 for this one. Cardinals in a laugher.  Did you ever think you would believe this at this point in an NFL season?
Cowboys +3 @ Steelers
total: 38
Algorithm has the same odds so it cannot pick this one.  Take the over though. Barber is out.  Ware will probably play but how effective will he be?
Redskins +5 @ Ravens
total: 35.5
Take the Ravens and the over. The NFC East have the best overall record of any division.  Having said this, I believe Baltimore will win this easily.
Buccaneers +3 @ Carolina
total: 38.5
Take Tamp and the over Game of the week! Last Monday night, the game was completely meaingless.  This one is the exact opposite.

Barber being out is a huge blow for Dallas.  I guess you would have to pick Pittsburgh. 

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Are You Serious Bowl Prediction

 

Oakland travel to San Diego to play a game televised on the NFL network.  This is probably one time many Americans are glad they DON’T have the NFL network.  Still, my algorithm churns on and here is its prediction for tonight’s game.

 

Game Algorithm Predicts Personal Comment
Oakland +9 @ San Diego
Total: 41.5
Take the Raiders and the Under I think “under” is the operative word to describe this game.  Underachieving, and undersubscribed.

Vegas keeps waiting for San Diego to show something.  Message to Chargers and Vegas.  They have already shown us something – inept coaching and inept defense.  I will always be thankful to Norv Turner for the job he did in Dallas, and also for coaching the Redskins which helped Dallas even further.  However, a head coach he is not.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Week 14 Rankings

This was not a good week for the algorithm but it really was a pretty weird week, with road teams going wild.  In picking winners the algorithm was 10 out of 15 making a profit of $112.20.  However, against the line the algorithm was only 6/16 making a loss of $427.66.  The over/under had a very good week going 9/13 making a profit of $418.18.

Meanwhile, the NFL rankings after week 13 is as follows:

1 New York Giants
2 Tennessee Titans
3 Baltimore Ravens
4 Pittsburgh Steelers
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6 Indianapolis Colts
7 New York Jets
8 Atlanta Falcons
9 Carolina Panthers
10 Philadelphia Eagles
11 Dallas Cowboys
12 Minnesota Vikings
13 Arizona Cardinals
14 New Orleans Saints
15 New England Patriots
16 Green Bay packers
17 Miami Dolphins
18 Denver Broncos
19 Chicago Bears
20 Buffalo Bills
21 San Diego Chargers
22 Washington Redskins
23 Cleveland Browns
24 Jacksonville Jaguars
25 Houston Texans
26 San Francisco 49ers
27 Oakland Raiders
28 Seattle Seahawks
29 Kansas City Chiefs
30 Cincinnati Bengals
31 St. Louis Rams
32 Detroit Lions

I think we can officially say goodbye to San Diego.  I would have said the same for the Packers, but with those suspensions handed down yesterday, the Vikings could well go into freefall.  Those losses to their interior D-line are pretty bad.

My algorithm currently ranks NBA teams as follows:

1 LA Lakers
2 Cleveland
3 Boston
4 Portland
5 Denver
6 Houston
7 Orlando
8 Dallas
9 Utah
10 Detroit
11 Phoenix
12 New Orleans
13 Indiana
14 San Antonio
15 New Jersey
16 Miami
17 Philadelphia
18 Atlanta
19 Chicago
20 Charlotte
21 Milwaukee
22 New York
23 Washington
24 Minnesota
25 Golden State
26 Memphis
27 Toronto
28 Sacramento
29 LA Clippers
30 Oklahoma City

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Week 13 Post Thanksgiving Picks

The algorithm went 1-2 on Thanksgiving with respect to line betting.  Once again it underestimated the Cowboys.  Here are the rest of the picks for week 13.

Game Algorithm Personal Comments
49ers +6.5 @ Bills
Total: 42.5
Take the Bills and the over  
Ravens –7 @ Bengals
Total: 36
Take the Ravens and the over. This could get ugly early.  Wait.  It’s already ugly and they haven’t played yet.
Panthers +3 @ Packers
Total: 42.5
Take the Panthers and the over. This could be a good game.
Dolphins –9 @ Rams
Total: 44.5
Take the dolphins and the under.  
Colts –5 @ Browns
Total: 45
Take the Colts and the under Are the Colts really any good?  Given their soft schedule, it is hard to tell.
Saints +4 @ Buccaneers
Total: 47
Take the Buccaneers and the over. Let down possibilities for the Saints here.
Giants –3.5 @ Redskins
Total: 41.5
Take the Giants and the over. For Cowboys fans, this is like King Kong v. Godzilla.  Who cares though it would probably be better if the Giants win this.
Falcons +4.5 @ Chargers
Total: 48
Take the Falcons and the under. At some point, Vegas needs to acknowledge the Chargers are a poor team.
Broncos +7.5 @ Jets
Total: 47.5
Take the Jets and the over.  
Chiefs +3 @ Raiders
total: 41.5
Take the Raiders and the over. My goodness.  I personally would not touch this game with a 10’ pole.
Steelers +1 @ Patriots
Total: 40
Take Pittsburgh.  The algorithm also repdicts 40 points so cannot pick the over/under. I personally think the Patriots win this game and possibly even comfortably.
Bears +3.5 @ Vikings
Total: 42
Take the Bears and the over. Algorithm predicts a Vikings win but by only 3 points.
Jaguars +3 @ Texans
Total: 48
Take the Jaguars and the under. If I had been shown this line at the start of the year, I might have bet the house on the Jags.  Now, I have no idea and probably don’t even care.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Thanksgiving Day Game Predictions

Here is what my algorithm predicts for the thanksgiving Day games.  I’ll publish the rest in another post.

Game Algorithm Predicts Personal Comments
titans – 11 @ Lions
Total: 44
Take the titans.  The algorithm also predicts 44 points will be scored so it cannot pick the over/under You have to be kidding me.  This –11 should be a first quarter spread.
Seahawks +12.5 @ Cowboys
Total: 46.5
Take the Seahawks (and the points) as well as the under. My algorithm is not kind to the Cowboys.  My rating system is not impressed yet with the Cowboys.
Cardinals +3 @ Eagles
Total: 47
Take the Cardinals and the over I am pretty surprised by this line.  I know the Cardinals haven’t really impressed on the road and they are going West to East, but you would still have to go with Arizona.

 

I am an American who lives in Australia.  The Lions game starts at 4:30am.  Would you get up at 4:30am to watch the Lions play any game?  My wife works the early shift on Friday at the hospital so we normally get up at 4:45am on Friday morning.  My dilemma is whether I sacrifice 15 minutes of sleep for this game.

I think any Australian who actually gets up for this game deserves a reward from the NFL.  I suggest a gift certificate good for a free session with a psychologist of choice.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Seahawks Cowboys Retrospective

The Leon Lett game will always be remembered as the game with the greatest or one of the greatest SNAFUs of all time.  Of course, there is always the Giants fumbling a run trying to run out the clock when all they had to do was kneel down, and watching as Herm Edwards ran it in for an Eagles touchdown.  But since the leon Lett SNAFU happened on Thanksgiving Day I thought it appropriate to think back on a Seahawks, Cowboys encounter in 1986.

In 1986, the Seahawks got off to a terrible start and no one thought much of them.  In fact, coming into Texas Stadium on that Thanksgiving Day, they were 5-6.  Who knew they would become the greatest 10-6 team of all time to miss out on the playoffs.  I honestly believe had the Seahawks managed to scrape into the playoffs that year, they would have won it all.  But at 5-6, who could have known this.

Meanwhile the Cowboys got off to a 6-2 start and I remember them beating up on the Cardinals in week 8.  they looked like a lock for the playoffs.  Then, they lost their next two games.  At 6-4 they stumbled out of San Diego with a one point win.  San Diego were not that good that year.  So everyone thought they would “get better” on Thanksgiving.  The Seahawks were seen as merely a training drill team for Dallas, so they could get back on track.  I expected this as well.

Seattle came in and basically slaughtered the Cowboys.  The final was 27-14, but it was all over at halftime with the Seahawks cruising in the second half.  I was in shock.  Seattle looked like the 7-4 team. 

Of course, every Cowboys fan knows what happened afterward.  They went into freefall losing the remainder of their games and finished 7-9.  This was surprising after a promising year in 1985 in which they unexpectedly won their division.  Meanwhile the Seahawks ran the table and only missed out on tie breakers.  As I said, they were the best 10-6 team of all time who missed out on the postseason.

I sincerely hope history does not repeat itself this time around.  I do not think Seattle has any chance of running the table this time and the Cowboys should win easily.  But that is what I thought 22 years earlier.  I hope the Cowboys do not underestimate the Seahawks.  Perhaps they should be reminded of that game so long ago.

Week 12 NFL Rankings by the Numbers

My algorithm ranks the 32 NFL teams as follows.

1 New York Giants
2 Tennessee Titans
3 New York Jets
4 Baltimore Ravens
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6 Pittsburgh Steelers
7 Arizona Cardinals
8 Indianapolis Colts
9 Carolina Panthers
10 Atlanta Falcons
11 New England Patriots
12 New Orleans Saints
13 Green Bay packers
14 Dallas Cowboys
15 Philadelphia Eagles
16 Chicago Bears
17 Minnesota Vikings
18 Miami Dolphins
19 Buffalo Bills
20 Washington Redskins
21 San Diego Chargers
22 Cleveland Browns
23 Jacksonville Jaguars
24 Denver Broncos
25 Houston Texans
26 Oakland Raiders
27 San Francisco 49ers
28 Seattle Seahawks
29 Cincinnati Bengals
30 Kansas City Chiefs
31 St. Louis Rams
32 Detroit Lions

 

We shouldn’t judge the Titans after their first loss.  Everyone is entitled to a bad day and the Titans sure had one.  Let’s see what they do against the mighty Lions.

I will also throw in the current NBA rankings.

 

1 LA Lakers
2 Cleveland
3 Boston
4 Houston
5 Phoenix
6 Orlando
7 San Antonio
8 Denver
9 Philadelphia
10 Dallas
11 Portland
12 Utah
13 New Orleans
14 Miami
15 Detroit
16 Indiana
17 Atlanta
18 Chicago
19 New Jersey
20 Toronto
21 Milwaukee
22 Charlotte
23 New York
24 Minnesota
25 Golden State
26 Memphis
27 Sacramento
28 Washington
29 LA Clippers
30 Oklahoma City

Week 12 by the Numbers

In week 12 my algorithm bounced back pretty well.  Here are the results.

Betting Type Overall Result Profit
Straight Up 7 out of 12 $-106.94
Line 7 out of 11 $340.91
Over/Under 8 out of 12 $414.19

A lot of road teams won.  With respect to the Cowboys, my algorithm picked them to win, but not to cover.  For some reason, San Francisco decided not to use press cover against Owens and they paid the price.

A lot of road teams won this week.  Is Bill Simmons (The Sports Guy) right that home field advantage is not what it used to be?  Just ask the Packers.  New Orleans exploded while Tennessee didn’t let the home team woes down by getting wiped out by the visiting Jets.

I think as the weather gets colder, home field advantage will come back with a vengeance.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

NFL rankings after week 11 + NBA team rankings

After 11 weeks of the NFL season, here are team rankings strictly by the numbers.

1.    New York Giants

2.    Tennessee Titans

3.    Carolina Panthers

4.    Arizona Cardinals

5.    New York Jets

6.    Baltimore Ravens

7.    Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8.    Pittsburgh Steelers

9.    Green Bay packers

10.    Philadelphia Eagles

11.    Miami Dolphins

12.    Indianapolis Colts

13.    Atlanta Falcons

14.    New England Patriots

15.    Dallas Cowboys

16.    Cleveland Browns

17.    New Orleans Saints

18.    San Diego Chargers

19.    Chicago Bears

20.    Washington Redskins

21.    Minnesota Vikings

22.    Buffalo Bills

23.    Jacksonville Jaguars

24.    Denver Broncos

25.    San Francisco 49ers

26.    Seattle Seahawks

27.    Houston Texans

28.    Cincinnati Bengals

29.    Kansas City Chiefs

30.    Oakland Raiders

31.    St. Louis Rams

32.    Detroit Lions

After 22 days of the NBA season, here are the rankings strictly by the numbers.


 

1.    LA Lakers

2.    Cleveland

3.    Boston

4.    Phoenix

5.    Philadelphia

6.    Detroit

7.    Utah

8.    Orlando

9.    Houston

10.    Indiana

11.    Denver

12.    Miami

13.    Chicago

14.    Atlanta

15.    New Orleans

16.    New Jersey

17.    Dallas

18.    San Antonio

19.    Toronto

20.    Portland

21.    New York

22.    Golden State

23.    Milwaukee

24.    Charlotte

25.    Memphis

26.    Sacramento

27.    Washington

28.    Minnesota

29.    Oklahoma City

30.    LA Clippers

I am a little surprised at Philadelphia's high ranking. Perhaps they are better than I thought.


 

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Week 11 Results and Observations

            Right/Wrong        Profit/Loss        Cumulative Profit/Loss

Straight            11/12            482.08            537.57

The Line        5/15            -535.71            29.05

Over/Under        8/16            -70.18            282.91

Although my algorithm picked virtually all the winners this week, its purpose is to predict the line wager and as such, it failed miserably this week and wiped out nearly all the profit made up to this point. That's the way it goes sometimes. The algorithm felt the pain of the Pittsburgh, San Diego ending. And speaking of that, I still do not understand the NFL's explanation at the time.

Most of this week's line misses were pretty straightforward. The games themselves were mostly high quality games and there seemed to be a lot of low scoring close games. The Cowboys won, which was a good thing if you are a Cowboys fan. That game reminded me of the second meeting between these two teams in 1977, a year in which the Cowboys eventually won the Super Bowl. In 1977, the Cowboys got off to an 8-0 start of the 14 game season. Then the wheels came off. They suffered an upset loss to the Cardinals at home on Monday Night Football, then got slammed hard in Pittsburgh 28-13. When they staggered to Washington the following week, the once seemingly invincible team looked like it might drop out of the NFC East lead at any moment. Washington scored a quick first quarter touchdown in front of their crazed fans and things were not looking good. But the Cowboys stumbled out of RFK stadium with a hard fought 14-7 win. If there had been blogs in those days, the win would probably have been described as unimpressive and I believe it was at the time. But this game was a turning point for the 1977 season and the Cowboys began their road to recovery in Washington. I hope they can do the same this time around.

But how good are the Giants? They are not just beating good teams, they are destroying them like so much paper fluff. You never know what happens in the long months of November and December, but they look the goods to me.

 

Friday, November 14, 2008

The Rest of Week 12 By the Numbers

Here is what my Algorithm predicted for the rest of week 12. Earlier the algorithm predicted Pittsburgh 26 Cincinnati 10. Pretty close so let's see if this thing can recover from a bad week last week.

The Line:    Patriots pick 'em at Dolphins        Total:    42

Algorithm picks Miami by 2 as well as the under.

Personal Comment: If you had told me at the start of the season that in week 12 my algorithm would predict the Dolphins to beat the Patriots, I would have thought you were insane.

The Line:    Eagles +1 at Baltimore            Total:    39.5

Algorithm says take the Ravens and the over.

The Line:    Texans +3 at Browns            Total:    50.5

Algorithm says take the Browns and the under.

The Line:    49ers +10 at Cowboys            Total:    46.5

Algorithm says take the 49ers with Cowboys winning by only 7. Take the under.

The Line:    Jets +5.5 at Titans            Total:    40.5

Algorithm says Titans will win but only by a point. Take the over.

Personal Comment: I did not expect the algorithm to predict such a close game. Were this game in New Jersey, I think the Jets might win, but the Titans should win easily at home.

The Line:    Bills -3 at Chiefs                Total:    43.5

Algorithm also says the bills -3 so it cannot pick this one with the line. However it does say pic the over.

The Line:    Bears -7.5 at Rams            Total:    43

Algorithm says take the Bears and the over.

The Line:    Vikings +2.5 at Jacksonville        total:    40.5

Algorithm says Jacksonville wins by 1 point so take the Vikings as well as the over.

The Line:    Bucs -7.5 at Lions            Total:    42.5

Algorithm says take the Buccaneers and the over.

The Line:    Raiders +9 at Broncos            total:    42.5

Algorithm says take the Raiders and the under.

PersonalComment: The Raiders are playing good defence but it will be interesting to see out their offence goes against that terrible Denver D. This is the very resistable force vs. The incredibly moving object.

The Line:    Panthers +1 at Falcons            Total:    43

Algorithm says take the Panthers and the under. Algorithm actually predicts the Panthers to win.

The Line:    Redskins -3.5 at Seahawks        Total:    40

Algorithm says take the Seahawks. It also predicts 40 points will be scored so it cannot predict the over/under.

The Line:    Giants -3 at Cardinals            Total:    48.5

Algorithm also predicts -3 so cannot pick this game. It does say to pick the over.

The Line:    Colts +2.5 at Chargers            Total:    49.5

Algorithm says take the Colts and the under.

Personal Comment: Will the real San Diego Chargers please stand up? But wait, they may already have and the real chargers just are not that good. I am always thankful for what Norv Turner didn't for Aikman's Cowboys, but he is not a good head coach.

The Line:    Packers +2.5 at Saints            Total:    51.5

Algorithm says take the Pakcers not only to cover, but to win. Also, take the under.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Jets at Patriots by the Numbers

The Line:    Jets +3.5    Total: 41.5

Algorithm says take the Jets and the over.

Personal Comment

My algorithm says the Jets will actually win this game let alone cover the spread. Personally, I've seen this too many times. Everyone jumps on the Jets bandwagon against the Patriots but somehow, the Patriots manage to win. Didn't we see this in week 2?

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

What Is Really Wrong With The Raiders

Why are the Raiders the most dysfunctional team in the NFL and why have they been for the past several years? The simple answer is Al Davis. This, however, is by no means a new insight or perspective. 99% of Raiders fans know this, and the other 1% have tuned out for the past few years. But I think a look behind the psychology of Al Davis is far more interesting.

I believe the problem is Al Davis still lives in the 70's glory days and has been trying for the past decade or so to recreate a team like those John Madden led teams. I am a Cowboys fan, but no one who watched football in the 70's, with the exception of division rivals, could not help but admire the Raiders in many ways.

The Raiders of the 70's were fast and loose. They were led by Kenny "The Snake" Stabler. Stabler did not worry much about keeping in shape and he cared even less for his moral reputation. He was probably as close to an anti-quarterback as there ever was in the NFL. Despite this, he deserved his snake reputation. The guy could thread the ball more accurately than just about anyone. He was also ice under pressure. And Stabler was cunning, like a snake. Ask any San Diego fan who witnessed the now infamous "holy roller" play. I always believed you had to be devious to pull that off. Roger Staubach is probably too honest and upright to have tried something like that and today's factory quarterbacks wouldn't have the instinctive deviousness to even consider it.

The old Raiders were consistently one of the most penalized teams in the NFL, but this did not seem to phase them. They had swagger, and they had a habit of relaxing too much when they got out to a big lead. And they got big leads because Fred Biletnikoff and Cliff Branch chewed up yardage with ease. Biletnikoff made circus hands of glue catch after circus catch. This was not a dink and dunk team and they never really found a consistent running game. No matter. They won anyway. They looked tough in their black uniforms with skull and crossbones painted on their helmets. They talked tough, and they played like guys who partied way too hard the night before but somehow managed to win anyway. And as an added bonus, we got to watch young John Madden getting an ulcer before our very eyes in pressure situations – most of which were brought about because of lax sloppy discipline.

The Madden Raiders were fun to watch and you kind of wished you could be on the team bus with those guys because you knew you would have a heck of a good time.

I believe Al Davis longs for another team like this. John Madden was young and relatively unproven as a coach when he took over the Raiders. You sometimes got the impression watching him that so long as his offensive line pounded people, he didn't care what happened. Those Raiders were the outlaws of the NFL and Al Davis loved it.

The problem is, each coach must create an identity for his team, based on the players and personnel he has. Identities are also shaped by evolving tactics employed by other teams. Some teams are power teams because they are built that way, while others are glamour teams who light it up, and hope their defence can get lucky every once in a while. Al Davis does not let his coaches meld an identity for his Raiders. He demands an identity. He expects his coaches to create Madden Raiders Mark II so to speak. He doesn't care who he has on his team. Maybe he sees Stabler and company whenever the Raiders take the field.

But of course, the 70's are no more and Davis needs to let his coaches find and build a new identity for today's Raiders, one that suits both personnel and tactics. He can always relive the "fun times" by watching ESPN Classic. Raiders fans are like those of every other team. First and foremost, they want to win. Most players are the same. But teams have to win their way because that is really the only way they can win. If Davis allows this to happen, I think the Raiders can become a winner once more and he might just be surprised to discover that he enjoys football once more. Davis should remember the past fondly, but deal with the present.


 

NFL Line Predictions By the Numbers

In 1980 I began to rank NFL teams as a hobby. My intent was to rank NFL teams strictly by numbers, without emotions or taking things like injuries into account. My first rankings were done using paper and pencil and my algorithm was very crude. Over the years I refined and computerized my rankings. After a while I discovered the rankings were very useful as a platform to a predictive algorithm designed to wager against the Vegas line.

My idea is very simple really. Just as it is far easier to predict general stock market trends than it is to predict individual stocks, it is easier to predict the general trend of a season than it is to predict individual games. This is an imperfect analogy but it is the best I can come up with. Translated into wagering terms, it means that if you bet the same amount on every game of every week, and if you use the same system for each game regardless of the situation, then over time, you will come out ahead.

For instance, in 2007 of last year I bet $100 against the line for each game. Thus, when all 32 teams played, I placed 16 individual bets of $100 one way or the other against the line, depending on what my algorithm told me to do. After the super bowl, I made a little over $1,120 in profit for that season. I did the same for the 2007 – 2008 NBA season, and made a profit of just over $6,000, betting $100 on every game based solely on the algorithm's numbers. Again, my idea is that over time, general trends will work for you and will cover up some of the problems caused by betting on only one game. In real terms, if you bet on all the games, and get just over 52% of them right in terms of line wagering, you will come out ahead.

My algorithm assumes nothing at the start of the year. All teams are considered equal. It does not matter who won the Super Bowl last year or what happened during free agency. This means my algorithm is virtually useless for the first two or three weeks. I do not actually start using it for wagering until week 5 when there are enough numbers to build a good picture of who is good, who is middle of the road, and who is downright terrible. As time passes, the better it is at predicting.

Starting from week 11 I will post my algorithm's predictions. I will consult the same online sporting book so as not to find the best odds in favor of my algorithm. And because this is my blog, I will add personal comments. I will also publish how well the algorithm did the previous week.

I will also publish my algorithm's over/under predictions, but it is not really designed for this although it staggered to a very small profit last year. This algorithm is designed to predict against the line.

I will publish predictions later on in the week.

I will briefly discuss some of the philosophy I employ for designing this algorithm. As I said earlier, it is much easier to predict long term general trends than it is to predict individual games. This is why sports books are rich and most of us are not. Everyone knows, however, that sometimes, catastrophic events happen to a team. Take Tom Brady's injury, for example. What we normally do when something like this happens is get emotional and assume a team will fall apart afterwards. To continue with this example, my algorithm would say that over time, we will see how the Patriots react because over time, their general trends will smooth out and we will have a much clearer picture of where they stand relative to other teams. Eventually, at least to this point, we now know the Patriots are still pretty good. So I might have lost some money for the first couple of weeks after the Patriots lost Brady (although this happened in week 1 so I was not using the algorithm as yet), but eventually, the algorithm will right itself. Over time, I come out ahead because wagers based on true objective evaluations win out over wagers on individual games.

Of course, nothing is perfect. A couple of years ago, my algorithm just could not get a handle on the Jets, and this helped bring me down in what was a brutal year. But for most years, this algorithm does quite well. Last year, for instance, the Algorithm consistently said to pick against the Patriots covering their huge spreads during the month of December. It was right more times than not. It pretty much did the same thing for the Cowboys. As a Cowboys fan, I, along with just about everyone else, expected the Cowboys to climb out of their funk, but the algorithm basically said: "Until they do, assume nothing." Sadly, they never did.

So stay tuned for this year's predictions. We'll see whether this philosophy has any merit. So far, my algorithm is up $564.76 but can it keep this up? We'll see.


 


 

NFL Rankings After Week 10

Since 1980 I have ranked NFL teams based purely on numbers. Aside from my algorithm's few basic assumptions, this strips all emotions and opinions out of the equation. I'm not saying this makes my rankings superior to all other rankings, but it offers another way of evaluating teams in the NFL. Over the years, I have refined the algorithm to the point that I believe it now portrays a very accurate picture of how teams stack up against one another. My algorithm is based on the following basic assumptions.

Assume nothing at the start of the year. Before week 1, all teams are considered equal.

We all have our opinions at the start of the year but anyone who has watched any sports league for any length of time knows that "on paper" is pretty useless. This means for the first couple of weeks, the rankings are meaningless because there are not enough numbers to make a good analysis of the teams. But as the season progresses, the algorithm comes into its own. I'll just say I use it to put money on it.


 

Any win is worth rewarding

Some wins are ugly, some are closer than they should be, but the NFL is all about winning.


 

Over time, very good teams should slaughter very bad teams. Wins over highly ranked teams are worth more than wins against low ranked teams. The reverse is true. Losses against low ranked teams are worse for ranking purposes than losses against highly ranked teams

While this is an opinion, I apply it equally to all games.


 

After week 10, the rankings are as follows:


 

1

Tennessee Titans 

2

New York Giants

3

Baltimore Ravens 

4

Carolina Panthers 

5

New York Jets 

6

Arizona Cardinals 

7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

8

Pittsburgh Steelers 

9

Philadelphia Eagles 

10

Atlanta Falcons 

11

Miami Dolphins 

12

Chicago Bears 

13

Indianapolis Colts 

14

New England Patriots

15

Green Bay packers 

16

San Diego Chargers 

17

Minnesota Vikings 

18

Washington Redskins 

19

Dallas Cowboys 

20

Jacksonville Jaguars 

21

Cleveland Browns 

22

New Orleans Saints 

23

Buffalo Bills 

24

Denver Broncos 

25

Seattle Seahawks 

26

San Francisco 49ers

27

Houston Texans 

28

Kansas City Chiefs

29

Oakland Raiders 

30

St. Louis Rams 

31

Cincinnati Bengals 

32

Detroit Lions