Week 13 Post Thanksgiving Picks

The algorithm went 1-2 on Thanksgiving with respect to line betting.  Once again it underestimated the Cowboys.  Here are the rest of the picks for week 13.

Game	Algorithm	Personal Comments
49ers +6.5 @ Bills Total: 42.5	Take the Bills and the over
Ravens –7 @ Bengals Total: 36	Take the Ravens and the over.	This could get ugly early.  Wait.  It’s already ugly and they haven’t played yet.
Panthers +3 @ Packers Total: 42.5	Take the Panthers and the over.	This could be a good game.
Dolphins –9 @ Rams Total: 44.5	Take the dolphins and the under.
Colts –5 @ Browns Total: 45	Take the Colts and the under	Are the Colts really any good?  Given their soft schedule, it is hard to tell.
Saints +4 @ Buccaneers Total: 47	Take the Buccaneers and the over.	Let down possibilities for the Saints here.
Giants –3.5 @ Redskins Total: 41.5	Take the Giants and the over.	For Cowboys fans, this is like King Kong v. Godzilla.  Who cares though it would probably be better if the Giants win this.
Falcons +4.5 @ Chargers Total: 48	Take the Falcons and the under.	At some point, Vegas needs to acknowledge the Chargers are a poor team.
Broncos +7.5 @ Jets Total: 47.5	Take the Jets and the over.
Chiefs +3 @ Raiders total: 41.5	Take the Raiders and the over.	My goodness.  I personally would not touch this game with a 10’ pole.
Steelers +1 @ Patriots Total: 40	Take Pittsburgh.  The algorithm also repdicts 40 points so cannot pick the over/under.	I personally think the Patriots win this game and possibly even comfortably.
Bears +3.5 @ Vikings Total: 42	Take the Bears and the over.	Algorithm predicts a Vikings win but by only 3 points.
Jaguars +3 @ Texans Total: 48	Take the Jaguars and the under.	If I had been shown this line at the start of the year, I might have bet the house on the Jags.  Now, I have no idea and probably don’t even care.

Thanksgiving Day Game Predictions

Here is what my algorithm predicts for the thanksgiving Day games.  I’ll publish the rest in another post.

Game	Algorithm Predicts	Personal Comments
titans – 11 @ Lions Total: 44	Take the titans.  The algorithm also predicts 44 points will be scored so it cannot pick the over/under	You have to be kidding me.  This –11 should be a first quarter spread.
Seahawks +12.5 @ Cowboys Total: 46.5	Take the Seahawks (and the points) as well as the under.	My algorithm is not kind to the Cowboys.  My rating system is not impressed yet with the Cowboys.
Cardinals +3 @ Eagles Total: 47	Take the Cardinals and the over	I am pretty surprised by this line.  I know the Cardinals haven’t really impressed on the road and they are going West to East, but you would still have to go with Arizona.

 

I am an American who lives in Australia.  The Lions game starts at 4:30am.  Would you get up at 4:30am to watch the Lions play any game?  My wife works the early shift on Friday at the hospital so we normally get up at 4:45am on Friday morning.  My dilemma is whether I sacrifice 15 minutes of sleep for this game.

I think any Australian who actually gets up for this game deserves a reward from the NFL.  I suggest a gift certificate good for a free session with a psychologist of choice.

Seahawks Cowboys Retrospective

The Leon Lett game will always be remembered as the game with the greatest or one of the greatest SNAFUs of all time.  Of course, there is always the Giants fumbling a run trying to run out the clock when all they had to do was kneel down, and watching as Herm Edwards ran it in for an Eagles touchdown.  But since the leon Lett SNAFU happened on Thanksgiving Day I thought it appropriate to think back on a Seahawks, Cowboys encounter in 1986.

In 1986, the Seahawks got off to a terrible start and no one thought much of them.  In fact, coming into Texas Stadium on that Thanksgiving Day, they were 5-6.  Who knew they would become the greatest 10-6 team of all time to miss out on the playoffs.  I honestly believe had the Seahawks managed to scrape into the playoffs that year, they would have won it all.  But at 5-6, who could have known this.

Meanwhile the Cowboys got off to a 6-2 start and I remember them beating up on the Cardinals in week 8.  they looked like a lock for the playoffs.  Then, they lost their next two games.  At 6-4 they stumbled out of San Diego with a one point win.  San Diego were not that good that year.  So everyone thought they would “get better” on Thanksgiving.  The Seahawks were seen as merely a training drill team for Dallas, so they could get back on track.  I expected this as well.

Seattle came in and basically slaughtered the Cowboys.  The final was 27-14, but it was all over at halftime with the Seahawks cruising in the second half.  I was in shock.  Seattle looked like the 7-4 team. 

Of course, every Cowboys fan knows what happened afterward.  They went into freefall losing the remainder of their games and finished 7-9.  This was surprising after a promising year in 1985 in which they unexpectedly won their division.  Meanwhile the Seahawks ran the table and only missed out on tie breakers.  As I said, they were the best 10-6 team of all time who missed out on the postseason.

I sincerely hope history does not repeat itself this time around.  I do not think Seattle has any chance of running the table this time and the Cowboys should win easily.  But that is what I thought 22 years earlier.  I hope the Cowboys do not underestimate the Seahawks.  Perhaps they should be reminded of that game so long ago.

Week 12 NFL Rankings by the Numbers

My algorithm ranks the 32 NFL teams as follows.

1	New York Giants
2	Tennessee Titans
3	New York Jets
4	Baltimore Ravens
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6	Pittsburgh Steelers
7	Arizona Cardinals
8	Indianapolis Colts
9	Carolina Panthers
10	Atlanta Falcons
11	New England Patriots
12	New Orleans Saints
13	Green Bay packers
14	Dallas Cowboys
15	Philadelphia Eagles
16	Chicago Bears
17	Minnesota Vikings
18	Miami Dolphins
19	Buffalo Bills
20	Washington Redskins
21	San Diego Chargers
22	Cleveland Browns
23	Jacksonville Jaguars
24	Denver Broncos
25	Houston Texans
26	Oakland Raiders
27	San Francisco 49ers
28	Seattle Seahawks
29	Cincinnati Bengals
30	Kansas City Chiefs
31	St. Louis Rams
32	Detroit Lions

 

We shouldn’t judge the Titans after their first loss.  Everyone is entitled to a bad day and the Titans sure had one.  Let’s see what they do against the mighty Lions.

I will also throw in the current NBA rankings.

 

1	LA Lakers
2	Cleveland
3	Boston
4	Houston
5	Phoenix
6	Orlando
7	San Antonio
8	Denver
9	Philadelphia
10	Dallas
11	Portland
12	Utah
13	New Orleans
14	Miami
15	Detroit
16	Indiana
17	Atlanta
18	Chicago
19	New Jersey
20	Toronto
21	Milwaukee
22	Charlotte
23	New York
24	Minnesota
25	Golden State
26	Memphis
27	Sacramento
28	Washington
29	LA Clippers
30	Oklahoma City

Week 12 by the Numbers

In week 12 my algorithm bounced back pretty well.  Here are the results.

Betting Type	Overall Result	Profit
Straight Up	7 out of 12	$-106.94
Line	7 out of 11	$340.91
Over/Under	8 out of 12	$414.19

A lot of road teams won.  With respect to the Cowboys, my algorithm picked them to win, but not to cover.  For some reason, San Francisco decided not to use press cover against Owens and they paid the price.

A lot of road teams won this week.  Is Bill Simmons (The Sports Guy) right that home field advantage is not what it used to be?  Just ask the Packers.  New Orleans exploded while Tennessee didn’t let the home team woes down by getting wiped out by the visiting Jets.

I think as the weather gets colder, home field advantage will come back with a vengeance.

NFL rankings after week 11 + NBA team rankings

After 11 weeks of the NFL season, here are team rankings strictly by the numbers.

1.    New York Giants

2.    Tennessee Titans

3.    Carolina Panthers

4.    Arizona Cardinals

5.    New York Jets

6.    Baltimore Ravens

7.    Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8.    Pittsburgh Steelers

9.    Green Bay packers

10.    Philadelphia Eagles

11.    Miami Dolphins

12.    Indianapolis Colts

13.    Atlanta Falcons

14.    New England Patriots

15.    Dallas Cowboys

16.    Cleveland Browns

17.    New Orleans Saints

18.    San Diego Chargers

19.    Chicago Bears

20.    Washington Redskins

21.    Minnesota Vikings

22.    Buffalo Bills

23.    Jacksonville Jaguars

24.    Denver Broncos

25.    San Francisco 49ers

26.    Seattle Seahawks

27.    Houston Texans

28.    Cincinnati Bengals

29.    Kansas City Chiefs

30.    Oakland Raiders

31.    St. Louis Rams

32.    Detroit Lions

After 22 days of the NBA season, here are the rankings strictly by the numbers.

 

1.    LA Lakers

2.    Cleveland

3.    Boston

4.    Phoenix

5.    Philadelphia

6.    Detroit

7.    Utah

8.    Orlando

9.    Houston

10.    Indiana

11.    Denver

12.    Miami

13.    Chicago

14.    Atlanta

15.    New Orleans

16.    New Jersey

17.    Dallas

18.    San Antonio

19.    Toronto

20.    Portland

21.    New York

22.    Golden State

23.    Milwaukee

24.    Charlotte

25.    Memphis

26.    Sacramento

27.    Washington

28.    Minnesota

29.    Oklahoma City

30.    LA Clippers

I am a little surprised at Philadelphia's high ranking. Perhaps they are better than I thought.

 

Week 11 Results and Observations

            Right/Wrong        Profit/Loss        Cumulative Profit/Loss

Straight            11/12            482.08            537.57

The Line        5/15            -535.71            29.05

Over/Under        8/16            -70.18            282.91

Although my algorithm picked virtually all the winners this week, its purpose is to predict the line wager and as such, it failed miserably this week and wiped out nearly all the profit made up to this point. That's the way it goes sometimes. The algorithm felt the pain of the Pittsburgh, San Diego ending. And speaking of that, I still do not understand the NFL's explanation at the time.

Most of this week's line misses were pretty straightforward. The games themselves were mostly high quality games and there seemed to be a lot of low scoring close games. The Cowboys won, which was a good thing if you are a Cowboys fan. That game reminded me of the second meeting between these two teams in 1977, a year in which the Cowboys eventually won the Super Bowl. In 1977, the Cowboys got off to an 8-0 start of the 14 game season. Then the wheels came off. They suffered an upset loss to the Cardinals at home on Monday Night Football, then got slammed hard in Pittsburgh 28-13. When they staggered to Washington the following week, the once seemingly invincible team looked like it might drop out of the NFC East lead at any moment. Washington scored a quick first quarter touchdown in front of their crazed fans and things were not looking good. But the Cowboys stumbled out of RFK stadium with a hard fought 14-7 win. If there had been blogs in those days, the win would probably have been described as unimpressive and I believe it was at the time. But this game was a turning point for the 1977 season and the Cowboys began their road to recovery in Washington. I hope they can do the same this time around.

But how good are the Giants? They are not just beating good teams, they are destroying them like so much paper fluff. You never know what happens in the long months of November and December, but they look the goods to me.

 

The Rest of Week 12 By the Numbers

Here is what my Algorithm predicted for the rest of week 12. Earlier the algorithm predicted Pittsburgh 26 Cincinnati 10. Pretty close so let's see if this thing can recover from a bad week last week.

The Line:    Patriots pick 'em at Dolphins        Total:    42

Algorithm picks Miami by 2 as well as the under.

Personal Comment: If you had told me at the start of the season that in week 12 my algorithm would predict the Dolphins to beat the Patriots, I would have thought you were insane.

The Line:    Eagles +1 at Baltimore            Total:    39.5

Algorithm says take the Ravens and the over.

The Line:    Texans +3 at Browns            Total:    50.5

Algorithm says take the Browns and the under.

The Line:    49ers +10 at Cowboys            Total:    46.5

Algorithm says take the 49ers with Cowboys winning by only 7. Take the under.

The Line:    Jets +5.5 at Titans            Total:    40.5

Algorithm says Titans will win but only by a point. Take the over.

Personal Comment: I did not expect the algorithm to predict such a close game. Were this game in New Jersey, I think the Jets might win, but the Titans should win easily at home.

The Line:    Bills -3 at Chiefs                Total:    43.5

Algorithm also says the bills -3 so it cannot pick this one with the line. However it does say pic the over.

The Line:    Bears -7.5 at Rams            Total:    43

Algorithm says take the Bears and the over.

The Line:    Vikings +2.5 at Jacksonville        total:    40.5

Algorithm says Jacksonville wins by 1 point so take the Vikings as well as the over.

The Line:    Bucs -7.5 at Lions            Total:    42.5

Algorithm says take the Buccaneers and the over.

The Line:    Raiders +9 at Broncos            total:    42.5

Algorithm says take the Raiders and the under.

PersonalComment: The Raiders are playing good defence but it will be interesting to see out their offence goes against that terrible Denver D. This is the very resistable force vs. The incredibly moving object.

The Line:    Panthers +1 at Falcons            Total:    43

Algorithm says take the Panthers and the under. Algorithm actually predicts the Panthers to win.

The Line:    Redskins -3.5 at Seahawks        Total:    40

Algorithm says take the Seahawks. It also predicts 40 points will be scored so it cannot predict the over/under.

The Line:    Giants -3 at Cardinals            Total:    48.5

Algorithm also predicts -3 so cannot pick this game. It does say to pick the over.

The Line:    Colts +2.5 at Chargers            Total:    49.5

Algorithm says take the Colts and the under.

Personal Comment: Will the real San Diego Chargers please stand up? But wait, they may already have and the real chargers just are not that good. I am always thankful for what Norv Turner didn't for Aikman's Cowboys, but he is not a good head coach.

The Line:    Packers +2.5 at Saints            Total:    51.5

Algorithm says take the Pakcers not only to cover, but to win. Also, take the under.

Jets at Patriots by the Numbers

The Line:    Jets +3.5    Total: 41.5

Algorithm says take the Jets and the over.

Personal Comment

My algorithm says the Jets will actually win this game let alone cover the spread. Personally, I've seen this too many times. Everyone jumps on the Jets bandwagon against the Patriots but somehow, the Patriots manage to win. Didn't we see this in week 2?

What Is Really Wrong With The Raiders

Why are the Raiders the most dysfunctional team in the NFL and why have they been for the past several years? The simple answer is Al Davis. This, however, is by no means a new insight or perspective. 99% of Raiders fans know this, and the other 1% have tuned out for the past few years. But I think a look behind the psychology of Al Davis is far more interesting.

I believe the problem is Al Davis still lives in the 70's glory days and has been trying for the past decade or so to recreate a team like those John Madden led teams. I am a Cowboys fan, but no one who watched football in the 70's, with the exception of division rivals, could not help but admire the Raiders in many ways.

The Raiders of the 70's were fast and loose. They were led by Kenny "The Snake" Stabler. Stabler did not worry much about keeping in shape and he cared even less for his moral reputation. He was probably as close to an anti-quarterback as there ever was in the NFL. Despite this, he deserved his snake reputation. The guy could thread the ball more accurately than just about anyone. He was also ice under pressure. And Stabler was cunning, like a snake. Ask any San Diego fan who witnessed the now infamous "holy roller" play. I always believed you had to be devious to pull that off. Roger Staubach is probably too honest and upright to have tried something like that and today's factory quarterbacks wouldn't have the instinctive deviousness to even consider it.

The old Raiders were consistently one of the most penalized teams in the NFL, but this did not seem to phase them. They had swagger, and they had a habit of relaxing too much when they got out to a big lead. And they got big leads because Fred Biletnikoff and Cliff Branch chewed up yardage with ease. Biletnikoff made circus hands of glue catch after circus catch. This was not a dink and dunk team and they never really found a consistent running game. No matter. They won anyway. They looked tough in their black uniforms with skull and crossbones painted on their helmets. They talked tough, and they played like guys who partied way too hard the night before but somehow managed to win anyway. And as an added bonus, we got to watch young John Madden getting an ulcer before our very eyes in pressure situations – most of which were brought about because of lax sloppy discipline.

The Madden Raiders were fun to watch and you kind of wished you could be on the team bus with those guys because you knew you would have a heck of a good time.

I believe Al Davis longs for another team like this. John Madden was young and relatively unproven as a coach when he took over the Raiders. You sometimes got the impression watching him that so long as his offensive line pounded people, he didn't care what happened. Those Raiders were the outlaws of the NFL and Al Davis loved it.

The problem is, each coach must create an identity for his team, based on the players and personnel he has. Identities are also shaped by evolving tactics employed by other teams. Some teams are power teams because they are built that way, while others are glamour teams who light it up, and hope their defence can get lucky every once in a while. Al Davis does not let his coaches meld an identity for his Raiders. He demands an identity. He expects his coaches to create Madden Raiders Mark II so to speak. He doesn't care who he has on his team. Maybe he sees Stabler and company whenever the Raiders take the field.

But of course, the 70's are no more and Davis needs to let his coaches find and build a new identity for today's Raiders, one that suits both personnel and tactics. He can always relive the "fun times" by watching ESPN Classic. Raiders fans are like those of every other team. First and foremost, they want to win. Most players are the same. But teams have to win their way because that is really the only way they can win. If Davis allows this to happen, I think the Raiders can become a winner once more and he might just be surprised to discover that he enjoys football once more. Davis should remember the past fondly, but deal with the present.

 

NFL Line Predictions By the Numbers

In 1980 I began to rank NFL teams as a hobby. My intent was to rank NFL teams strictly by numbers, without emotions or taking things like injuries into account. My first rankings were done using paper and pencil and my algorithm was very crude. Over the years I refined and computerized my rankings. After a while I discovered the rankings were very useful as a platform to a predictive algorithm designed to wager against the Vegas line.

My idea is very simple really. Just as it is far easier to predict general stock market trends than it is to predict individual stocks, it is easier to predict the general trend of a season than it is to predict individual games. This is an imperfect analogy but it is the best I can come up with. Translated into wagering terms, it means that if you bet the same amount on every game of every week, and if you use the same system for each game regardless of the situation, then over time, you will come out ahead.

For instance, in 2007 of last year I bet $100 against the line for each game. Thus, when all 32 teams played, I placed 16 individual bets of $100 one way or the other against the line, depending on what my algorithm told me to do. After the super bowl, I made a little over $1,120 in profit for that season. I did the same for the 2007 – 2008 NBA season, and made a profit of just over $6,000, betting $100 on every game based solely on the algorithm's numbers. Again, my idea is that over time, general trends will work for you and will cover up some of the problems caused by betting on only one game. In real terms, if you bet on all the games, and get just over 52% of them right in terms of line wagering, you will come out ahead.

My algorithm assumes nothing at the start of the year. All teams are considered equal. It does not matter who won the Super Bowl last year or what happened during free agency. This means my algorithm is virtually useless for the first two or three weeks. I do not actually start using it for wagering until week 5 when there are enough numbers to build a good picture of who is good, who is middle of the road, and who is downright terrible. As time passes, the better it is at predicting.

Starting from week 11 I will post my algorithm's predictions. I will consult the same online sporting book so as not to find the best odds in favor of my algorithm. And because this is my blog, I will add personal comments. I will also publish how well the algorithm did the previous week.

I will also publish my algorithm's over/under predictions, but it is not really designed for this although it staggered to a very small profit last year. This algorithm is designed to predict against the line.

I will publish predictions later on in the week.

I will briefly discuss some of the philosophy I employ for designing this algorithm. As I said earlier, it is much easier to predict long term general trends than it is to predict individual games. This is why sports books are rich and most of us are not. Everyone knows, however, that sometimes, catastrophic events happen to a team. Take Tom Brady's injury, for example. What we normally do when something like this happens is get emotional and assume a team will fall apart afterwards. To continue with this example, my algorithm would say that over time, we will see how the Patriots react because over time, their general trends will smooth out and we will have a much clearer picture of where they stand relative to other teams. Eventually, at least to this point, we now know the Patriots are still pretty good. So I might have lost some money for the first couple of weeks after the Patriots lost Brady (although this happened in week 1 so I was not using the algorithm as yet), but eventually, the algorithm will right itself. Over time, I come out ahead because wagers based on true objective evaluations win out over wagers on individual games.

Of course, nothing is perfect. A couple of years ago, my algorithm just could not get a handle on the Jets, and this helped bring me down in what was a brutal year. But for most years, this algorithm does quite well. Last year, for instance, the Algorithm consistently said to pick against the Patriots covering their huge spreads during the month of December. It was right more times than not. It pretty much did the same thing for the Cowboys. As a Cowboys fan, I, along with just about everyone else, expected the Cowboys to climb out of their funk, but the algorithm basically said: "Until they do, assume nothing." Sadly, they never did.

So stay tuned for this year's predictions. We'll see whether this philosophy has any merit. So far, my algorithm is up $564.76 but can it keep this up? We'll see.

 

 

NFL Rankings After Week 10

Since 1980 I have ranked NFL teams based purely on numbers. Aside from my algorithm's few basic assumptions, this strips all emotions and opinions out of the equation. I'm not saying this makes my rankings superior to all other rankings, but it offers another way of evaluating teams in the NFL. Over the years, I have refined the algorithm to the point that I believe it now portrays a very accurate picture of how teams stack up against one another. My algorithm is based on the following basic assumptions.

Assume nothing at the start of the year. Before week 1, all teams are considered equal.

We all have our opinions at the start of the year but anyone who has watched any sports league for any length of time knows that "on paper" is pretty useless. This means for the first couple of weeks, the rankings are meaningless because there are not enough numbers to make a good analysis of the teams. But as the season progresses, the algorithm comes into its own. I'll just say I use it to put money on it.

 

Any win is worth rewarding

Some wins are ugly, some are closer than they should be, but the NFL is all about winning.

 

Over time, very good teams should slaughter very bad teams. Wins over highly ranked teams are worth more than wins against low ranked teams. The reverse is true. Losses against low ranked teams are worse for ranking purposes than losses against highly ranked teams

While this is an opinion, I apply it equally to all games.

 

After week 10, the rankings are as follows:

 

1	Tennessee Titans
2	New York Giants
3	Baltimore Ravens
4	Carolina Panthers
5	New York Jets
6	Arizona Cardinals
7	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8	Pittsburgh Steelers
9	Philadelphia Eagles
10	Atlanta Falcons
11	Miami Dolphins
12	Chicago Bears
13	Indianapolis Colts
14	New England Patriots
15	Green Bay packers
16	San Diego Chargers
17	Minnesota Vikings
18	Washington Redskins
19	Dallas Cowboys
20	Jacksonville Jaguars
21	Cleveland Browns
22	New Orleans Saints
23	Buffalo Bills
24	Denver Broncos
25	Seattle Seahawks
26	San Francisco 49ers
27	Houston Texans
28	Kansas City Chiefs
29	Oakland Raiders
30	St. Louis Rams
31	Cincinnati Bengals
32	Detroit Lions