Week 13 Post Thanksgiving Picks

The algorithm went 1-2 on Thanksgiving with respect to line betting.  Once again it underestimated the Cowboys.  Here are the rest of the picks for week 13.

Game	Algorithm	Personal Comments
49ers +6.5 @ Bills Total: 42.5	Take the Bills and the over
Ravens –7 @ Bengals Total: 36	Take the Ravens and the over.	This could get ugly early.  Wait.  It’s already ugly and they haven’t played yet.
Panthers +3 @ Packers Total: 42.5	Take the Panthers and the over.	This could be a good game.
Dolphins –9 @ Rams Total: 44.5	Take the dolphins and the under.
Colts –5 @ Browns Total: 45	Take the Colts and the under	Are the Colts really any good?  Given their soft schedule, it is hard to tell.
Saints +4 @ Buccaneers Total: 47	Take the Buccaneers and the over.	Let down possibilities for the Saints here.
Giants –3.5 @ Redskins Total: 41.5	Take the Giants and the over.	For Cowboys fans, this is like King Kong v. Godzilla.  Who cares though it would probably be better if the Giants win this.
Falcons +4.5 @ Chargers Total: 48	Take the Falcons and the under.	At some point, Vegas needs to acknowledge the Chargers are a poor team.
Broncos +7.5 @ Jets Total: 47.5	Take the Jets and the over.
Chiefs +3 @ Raiders total: 41.5	Take the Raiders and the over.	My goodness.  I personally would not touch this game with a 10’ pole.
Steelers +1 @ Patriots Total: 40	Take Pittsburgh.  The algorithm also repdicts 40 points so cannot pick the over/under.	I personally think the Patriots win this game and possibly even comfortably.
Bears +3.5 @ Vikings Total: 42	Take the Bears and the over.	Algorithm predicts a Vikings win but by only 3 points.
Jaguars +3 @ Texans Total: 48	Take the Jaguars and the under.	If I had been shown this line at the start of the year, I might have bet the house on the Jags.  Now, I have no idea and probably don’t even care.

Thanksgiving Day Game Predictions

Here is what my algorithm predicts for the thanksgiving Day games.  I’ll publish the rest in another post.

Game	Algorithm Predicts	Personal Comments
titans – 11 @ Lions Total: 44	Take the titans.  The algorithm also predicts 44 points will be scored so it cannot pick the over/under	You have to be kidding me.  This –11 should be a first quarter spread.
Seahawks +12.5 @ Cowboys Total: 46.5	Take the Seahawks (and the points) as well as the under.	My algorithm is not kind to the Cowboys.  My rating system is not impressed yet with the Cowboys.
Cardinals +3 @ Eagles Total: 47	Take the Cardinals and the over	I am pretty surprised by this line.  I know the Cardinals haven’t really impressed on the road and they are going West to East, but you would still have to go with Arizona.

 

I am an American who lives in Australia.  The Lions game starts at 4:30am.  Would you get up at 4:30am to watch the Lions play any game?  My wife works the early shift on Friday at the hospital so we normally get up at 4:45am on Friday morning.  My dilemma is whether I sacrifice 15 minutes of sleep for this game.

I think any Australian who actually gets up for this game deserves a reward from the NFL.  I suggest a gift certificate good for a free session with a psychologist of choice.

Seahawks Cowboys Retrospective

The Leon Lett game will always be remembered as the game with the greatest or one of the greatest SNAFUs of all time.  Of course, there is always the Giants fumbling a run trying to run out the clock when all they had to do was kneel down, and watching as Herm Edwards ran it in for an Eagles touchdown.  But since the leon Lett SNAFU happened on Thanksgiving Day I thought it appropriate to think back on a Seahawks, Cowboys encounter in 1986.

In 1986, the Seahawks got off to a terrible start and no one thought much of them.  In fact, coming into Texas Stadium on that Thanksgiving Day, they were 5-6.  Who knew they would become the greatest 10-6 team of all time to miss out on the playoffs.  I honestly believe had the Seahawks managed to scrape into the playoffs that year, they would have won it all.  But at 5-6, who could have known this.

Meanwhile the Cowboys got off to a 6-2 start and I remember them beating up on the Cardinals in week 8.  they looked like a lock for the playoffs.  Then, they lost their next two games.  At 6-4 they stumbled out of San Diego with a one point win.  San Diego were not that good that year.  So everyone thought they would “get better” on Thanksgiving.  The Seahawks were seen as merely a training drill team for Dallas, so they could get back on track.  I expected this as well.

Seattle came in and basically slaughtered the Cowboys.  The final was 27-14, but it was all over at halftime with the Seahawks cruising in the second half.  I was in shock.  Seattle looked like the 7-4 team. 

Of course, every Cowboys fan knows what happened afterward.  They went into freefall losing the remainder of their games and finished 7-9.  This was surprising after a promising year in 1985 in which they unexpectedly won their division.  Meanwhile the Seahawks ran the table and only missed out on tie breakers.  As I said, they were the best 10-6 team of all time who missed out on the postseason.

I sincerely hope history does not repeat itself this time around.  I do not think Seattle has any chance of running the table this time and the Cowboys should win easily.  But that is what I thought 22 years earlier.  I hope the Cowboys do not underestimate the Seahawks.  Perhaps they should be reminded of that game so long ago.

Week 12 NFL Rankings by the Numbers

My algorithm ranks the 32 NFL teams as follows.

1	New York Giants
2	Tennessee Titans
3	New York Jets
4	Baltimore Ravens
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6	Pittsburgh Steelers
7	Arizona Cardinals
8	Indianapolis Colts
9	Carolina Panthers
10	Atlanta Falcons
11	New England Patriots
12	New Orleans Saints
13	Green Bay packers
14	Dallas Cowboys
15	Philadelphia Eagles
16	Chicago Bears
17	Minnesota Vikings
18	Miami Dolphins
19	Buffalo Bills
20	Washington Redskins
21	San Diego Chargers
22	Cleveland Browns
23	Jacksonville Jaguars
24	Denver Broncos
25	Houston Texans
26	Oakland Raiders
27	San Francisco 49ers
28	Seattle Seahawks
29	Cincinnati Bengals
30	Kansas City Chiefs
31	St. Louis Rams
32	Detroit Lions

 

We shouldn’t judge the Titans after their first loss.  Everyone is entitled to a bad day and the Titans sure had one.  Let’s see what they do against the mighty Lions.

I will also throw in the current NBA rankings.

 

1	LA Lakers
2	Cleveland
3	Boston
4	Houston
5	Phoenix
6	Orlando
7	San Antonio
8	Denver
9	Philadelphia
10	Dallas
11	Portland
12	Utah
13	New Orleans
14	Miami
15	Detroit
16	Indiana
17	Atlanta
18	Chicago
19	New Jersey
20	Toronto
21	Milwaukee
22	Charlotte
23	New York
24	Minnesota
25	Golden State
26	Memphis
27	Sacramento
28	Washington
29	LA Clippers
30	Oklahoma City

Week 12 by the Numbers

In week 12 my algorithm bounced back pretty well.  Here are the results.

Betting Type	Overall Result	Profit
Straight Up	7 out of 12	$-106.94
Line	7 out of 11	$340.91
Over/Under	8 out of 12	$414.19

A lot of road teams won.  With respect to the Cowboys, my algorithm picked them to win, but not to cover.  For some reason, San Francisco decided not to use press cover against Owens and they paid the price.

A lot of road teams won this week.  Is Bill Simmons (The Sports Guy) right that home field advantage is not what it used to be?  Just ask the Packers.  New Orleans exploded while Tennessee didn’t let the home team woes down by getting wiped out by the visiting Jets.

I think as the weather gets colder, home field advantage will come back with a vengeance.

NFL rankings after week 11 + NBA team rankings

After 11 weeks of the NFL season, here are team rankings strictly by the numbers.

1.    New York Giants

2.    Tennessee Titans

3.    Carolina Panthers

4.    Arizona Cardinals

5.    New York Jets

6.    Baltimore Ravens

7.    Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8.    Pittsburgh Steelers

9.    Green Bay packers

10.    Philadelphia Eagles

11.    Miami Dolphins

12.    Indianapolis Colts

13.    Atlanta Falcons

14.    New England Patriots

15.    Dallas Cowboys

16.    Cleveland Browns

17.    New Orleans Saints

18.    San Diego Chargers

19.    Chicago Bears

20.    Washington Redskins

21.    Minnesota Vikings

22.    Buffalo Bills

23.    Jacksonville Jaguars

24.    Denver Broncos

25.    San Francisco 49ers

26.    Seattle Seahawks

27.    Houston Texans

28.    Cincinnati Bengals

29.    Kansas City Chiefs

30.    Oakland Raiders

31.    St. Louis Rams

32.    Detroit Lions

After 22 days of the NBA season, here are the rankings strictly by the numbers.

 

1.    LA Lakers

2.    Cleveland

3.    Boston

4.    Phoenix

5.    Philadelphia

6.    Detroit

7.    Utah

8.    Orlando

9.    Houston

10.    Indiana

11.    Denver

12.    Miami

13.    Chicago

14.    Atlanta

15.    New Orleans

16.    New Jersey

17.    Dallas

18.    San Antonio

19.    Toronto

20.    Portland

21.    New York

22.    Golden State

23.    Milwaukee

24.    Charlotte

25.    Memphis

26.    Sacramento

27.    Washington

28.    Minnesota

29.    Oklahoma City

30.    LA Clippers

I am a little surprised at Philadelphia's high ranking. Perhaps they are better than I thought.

 

Week 11 Results and Observations

            Right/Wrong        Profit/Loss        Cumulative Profit/Loss

Straight            11/12            482.08            537.57

The Line        5/15            -535.71            29.05

Over/Under        8/16            -70.18            282.91

Although my algorithm picked virtually all the winners this week, its purpose is to predict the line wager and as such, it failed miserably this week and wiped out nearly all the profit made up to this point. That's the way it goes sometimes. The algorithm felt the pain of the Pittsburgh, San Diego ending. And speaking of that, I still do not understand the NFL's explanation at the time.

Most of this week's line misses were pretty straightforward. The games themselves were mostly high quality games and there seemed to be a lot of low scoring close games. The Cowboys won, which was a good thing if you are a Cowboys fan. That game reminded me of the second meeting between these two teams in 1977, a year in which the Cowboys eventually won the Super Bowl. In 1977, the Cowboys got off to an 8-0 start of the 14 game season. Then the wheels came off. They suffered an upset loss to the Cardinals at home on Monday Night Football, then got slammed hard in Pittsburgh 28-13. When they staggered to Washington the following week, the once seemingly invincible team looked like it might drop out of the NFC East lead at any moment. Washington scored a quick first quarter touchdown in front of their crazed fans and things were not looking good. But the Cowboys stumbled out of RFK stadium with a hard fought 14-7 win. If there had been blogs in those days, the win would probably have been described as unimpressive and I believe it was at the time. But this game was a turning point for the 1977 season and the Cowboys began their road to recovery in Washington. I hope they can do the same this time around.

But how good are the Giants? They are not just beating good teams, they are destroying them like so much paper fluff. You never know what happens in the long months of November and December, but they look the goods to me.