NFL 2024 Division Predictions
I have a somewhat unscientific but somewhat effective way of
predicting divisional winners and playoff teams. I take the four teams in each division and
rank then 4…3…2…1 with 4 being the best with regard to quarterback, coach,
offense, defense, and field goal kicker.
The best you can do is get 20 points.
Teams are ranked within each division, not against the wider
league. Whichever team gets the most
points is declared the division winner.
If there is a tie, then I decide.
Like I said, this is not as scientific as other systems.
Some of you might wonder why I place such a premium on field
goal kicking. One could argue that
should not have equal weight with the quarterback, but while that is generally
true, I do think the field goal kicker often decides games. If the Ravens and Cowboys suddenly
disappeared and you could grab their players for free, teams would scramble to
get their respective field goal kickers.
With all that being said, here are my predictions.
AFC East
|
Dolphins |
17 |
|
Bills |
16 |
|
Jets |
12 |
|
Patriots |
5 |
This surprised me a bit.
I expected Buffalo to win the division.
I ranked the quarterbacks with Josh Allen at the top, and Tua next,
followed by Aaron Rodgers. How could I
rank Rodgers as low as I have, I hear you ask?
Well, Rodgers hasn’t been great lately and he is coming off a bad injury
and I just think Tua will do better. It’s
going to be a long year for the Patriots.
AFC North
|
Ravens |
15 |
|
Bengals |
14 |
|
Steelers |
11 |
|
Browns |
10 |
The key here is how healthy Joe Burrow is. I ranked Jackson above Burrow mainly because
I am not sure whether burrow recovered from his wrist injury. Burrow also tends to start slowly. I think Mike Tomlin of the Steelers is the
best coach in that division, but the Steelers are not good in other
categories. This contributed to the
lower totals in this division.
AFC South
|
Texans |
17 |
|
Jaguars |
14 |
|
Colts |
11 |
|
Titans |
8 |
On paper, it’s Texans all the way and not even close. Time will tell but the Texans rank best in
most categories.
AFC West
|
Chiefs |
18 |
|
Broncos |
13 |
|
Chargers |
10 |
|
Raiders |
9 |
Picking the winner was pretty easy here. I had real trouble ranking the coaches. I gave the Broncos 3rd place but
Sean Payton is a heck of a coach. But so
is Jim Harbaugh. Nevertheless I have the
Broncos coming in second. I think Bo Nix
will be very good, specially since he is being coached by Payton. I also think Broncos over 5.5 wins is one of
the best futures bets out there. It
looks like a long year for the Raiders primarily because they don’t have a good
QB.
NFC East
|
Cowboys |
18 |
|
Eagles |
17 |
|
Commanders |
9 |
|
Giants |
6 |
I ranked Mike McCarthy as the top coach in the
division. Remember this is the regular
season. He might suck when the playoffs
begin, but the Cowboys have had three consecutive 12-win seasons. I ranked Jalen Hurts just above Dak Prescott
because I think he is more athletic. But
we’ll see. I know people are saying the
Cowboys won’t be good this year because they are starting two rookies on the
offensive line. But I think you will
find these rookies are very good. I
certainly hope so. I am more worried
about the defensive line.
NFC North
|
Lions |
18 |
|
Packers |
16 |
|
Vikings |
9 |
|
Bears |
7 |
The Lions may go all the way this year. I feel the Lions are the most complete team
in the NFC this year. The Vikings have
serious quarterback trouble and the Bears are starting a rookie. Williams might be fantastic, but most good
rookie quarterbacks are so-so their first year and I assumed this for my
ranking system.
NFC south
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This is the OMG division.
None of these teams are good, but I felt the Buccaneers were the best of
the bunch. Stay away from this division
if you like to bet.
NFC West
|
Rams |
18 |
|
49ers |
17 |
|
Seahawks |
10 |
|
Cardinals |
5 |
When all was said and done, I was surprised the Rams came
out on top. If it were simply up to me
without any numbers, I would pick the 49ers.
I ranked Stafford above Purdy as well as McVay above Shanahan. But these could easily be flipped. How much does Stafford have left in the tank
and please stop with all the Brock Purdy hate out there. This guy is the real deal, and it is about
time we acknowledged that Mr. Irrelevant is actually very relevant.
AFC Playoffs
I have the Bills, Bengals, and Jaguars being wild cards. I also think the Texans have a chance of
being the top seed as do the Dolphins. I
do not think the Chiefs will be top seed this year, but you can never count
them out.
NFC Playoffs
I have the Eagles, Packers, and 49ers being wild cards. I think the Lions will be the top seed and I
expect my Cowboys induced nervous breakdown to occur after wild card weekend.
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