NFL 2024 Division Winners Predictions

 NFL 2024 Division Predictions

I have a somewhat unscientific but somewhat effective way of predicting divisional winners and playoff teams.  I take the four teams in each division and rank then 4…3…2…1 with 4 being the best with regard to quarterback, coach, offense, defense, and field goal kicker.  The best you can do is get 20 points.  Teams are ranked within each division, not against the wider league.  Whichever team gets the most points is declared the division winner.  If there is a tie, then I decide.  Like I said, this is not as scientific as other systems.

Some of you might wonder why I place such a premium on field goal kicking.  One could argue that should not have equal weight with the quarterback, but while that is generally true, I do think the field goal kicker often decides games.  If the Ravens and Cowboys suddenly disappeared and you could grab their players for free, teams would scramble to get their respective field goal kickers.  With all that being said, here are my predictions.

AFC East

Dolphins	17
Bills	16
Jets	12
Patriots	5

 

This surprised me a bit.  I expected Buffalo to win the division.  I ranked the quarterbacks with Josh Allen at the top, and Tua next, followed by Aaron Rodgers.  How could I rank Rodgers as low as I have, I hear you ask?  Well, Rodgers hasn’t been great lately and he is coming off a bad injury and I just think Tua will do better.  It’s going to be a long year for the Patriots.

AFC North

Ravens	15
Bengals	14
Steelers	11
Browns	10

 

The key here is how healthy Joe Burrow is.  I ranked Jackson above Burrow mainly because I am not sure whether burrow recovered from his wrist injury.  Burrow also tends to start slowly.  I think Mike Tomlin of the Steelers is the best coach in that division, but the Steelers are not good in other categories.  This contributed to the lower totals in this division.

AFC South

Texans	17
Jaguars	14
Colts	11
Titans	8

 

On paper, it’s Texans all the way and not even close.  Time will tell but the Texans rank best in most categories.

AFC West

Chiefs	18
Broncos	13
Chargers	10
Raiders	9

 

Picking the winner was pretty easy here.  I had real trouble ranking the coaches.  I gave the Broncos 3^rd place but Sean Payton is a heck of a coach.  But so is Jim Harbaugh.  Nevertheless I have the Broncos coming in second.  I think Bo Nix will be very good, specially since he is being coached by Payton.  I also think Broncos over 5.5 wins is one of the best futures bets out there.  It looks like a long year for the Raiders primarily because they don’t have a good QB.

 

NFC East

Cowboys	18
Eagles	17
Commanders	9
Giants	6

 

I ranked Mike McCarthy as the top coach in the division.  Remember this is the regular season.  He might suck when the playoffs begin, but the Cowboys have had three consecutive 12-win seasons.  I ranked Jalen Hurts just above Dak Prescott because I think he is more athletic.  But we’ll see.  I know people are saying the Cowboys won’t be good this year because they are starting two rookies on the offensive line.  But I think you will find these rookies are very good.  I certainly hope so.  I am more worried about the defensive line.

NFC North

Lions	18
Packers	16
Vikings	9
Bears	7

 

The Lions may go all the way this year.  I feel the Lions are the most complete team in the NFC this year.  The Vikings have serious quarterback trouble and the Bears are starting a rookie.  Williams might be fantastic, but most good rookie quarterbacks are so-so their first year and I assumed this for my ranking system.

NFC south

Buccaneers 16 Saints 14 Falcons 10 Panthers 10

 

This is the OMG division.  None of these teams are good, but I felt the Buccaneers were the best of the bunch.  Stay away from this division if you like to bet.

NFC West

Rams	18
49ers	17
Seahawks	10
Cardinals	5

 

When all was said and done, I was surprised the Rams came out on top.  If it were simply up to me without any numbers, I would pick the 49ers.  I ranked Stafford above Purdy as well as McVay above Shanahan.  But these could easily be flipped.  How much does Stafford have left in the tank and please stop with all the Brock Purdy hate out there.  This guy is the real deal, and it is about time we acknowledged that Mr. Irrelevant is actually very relevant. 

AFC Playoffs

I have the Bills, Bengals, and Jaguars being wild cards.  I also think the Texans have a chance of being the top seed as do the Dolphins.  I do not think the Chiefs will be top seed this year, but you can never count them out.

NFC Playoffs

I have the Eagles, Packers, and 49ers being wild cards.  I think the Lions will be the top seed and I expect my Cowboys induced nervous breakdown to occur after wild card weekend.

 

 

The 2024 Totally Random AFL Finals

 The 2024 Totally Random Australian Rules Football (AFL) Finals

It is September and, in addition to that being the start of the NFL season, it is also time for the Australian Rules Football (AFL) finals.  But nobody cares about the Grand Final in the real world.  The only thing anyone cares about is the totally Random Finals.  In this tournament, scores are determined completely at random.  Home field, injuries, form, and talent levels are irrelevant.  The tournament is played once, and all scores are final.  So, here goes.

First Round

We begin with the Port Adelaide Power (2) going against the Geelong Cats (3).   Port are deceptively good.  They have gone largely under the radar, but they are very hard to score against, and they have toughness to go with the strong defense.  The Cats are inconsistent, but when the switch is turned on, it is on in a big way.  The Power dominate 138 – 87 in a surprisingly high scoring game.  The Power get a bye and are two matches away from glory.  The Cats are beaten but not eliminated.  They play on next week.  The Cats have a history of losing these first games, then making serious noise from then on, so we’ll see if that trend continues.

Next, we have the only game in Melbourne since three of the top four teams are not from Victoria and the Cats are from Geelong, Victoria’s other city.  So, a football starved crowd of 90,000 will cram into the MCG to watch this one.  The Bulldogs have a small following so are not used to playing in front of this many people.  Meanwhile the Hawks began 2024 0-5 and were the laughingstock of the AFL.  They made my Tigers jealous because they wanted to be the laughingstock instead.  Hawthorn went on a tear while my Tigers couldn’t win if they were the only team on the field.  Going from 0-5 to 7^th place and playing the 6^th place Bulldogs is an amazing achievement.  Both teams are playing well, but the Hawks are on another planet defeating the confident Bulldogs 54 – 87.  Bye-bye Bulldogs.  See you next year.

Next, we have the top team which is the Sydney Swans.  They have a huge advantage because they have a 16/17 chance of having a massive homefield advantage for playing a team not from New south Wales.  Unfortunately for the Swans, they drew the 1/17 straw and face the other New South Wales team, the Greater Western Sydney Giants.  But the Swans still have a decent home field advantage.  They are the big brother and on this occasion, they spank their little brother Giants by 47 points, 98 – 51.  The Swans get a bye and are two matches away from glory.  Like the Cats, the Giants are not eliminated but must win out to obtain the premiership.

Finally, we have the 5^th place Lions going up against the unluckiest, lucky team in the 8^th place Blues.  The Blues were bounced out of the finals with 12 seconds left in their last game, but were given a reprieve when the Power took out the Dockers allowing Carlton to scrape in.  The 8^th place team usually gets bounced, and this time is no exception.  The poor Blues are injury ravaged and lose by 120 points up in Brisbane 160 – 40.  The Lions have a cool tradition.  Each player has a song when they score a goal.  Lions forward Charlie Cameron scores a lot of goals and his song is country Road by John Denver.  This is a great song with the lyrics known by just about everyone.  By the end of this game, though, this song is played so many times, people who still have physical copies of music burn their John Denver albums.  I must say, though, I love this tradition. 

I imagine me as an AFL Player.  “And Breault gets the ball.  He bombs from outside 50 and ohhhhhhhhh what a goal!  He has 8 for the match.  Breault is a superstar!”  And then, my chosen song plays which is the Joker by the Steve Miller Band.  Here it is for those who don’t know it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3mfENm6VJc

Yes, it’s all about me.

The Second Round

The 4^th place Giants get a home game against the 5th place Lions.  In front of 5,674 fans in Western Sydney, the Giants show why they finished 4^th saying goodbye to the Lions 112 – 51.  Those who burned their John Denver albums after the Lions thrashed the Blues by 120 points in the previous week rush to join Apple Music or Spodify.  John Denver vinyl records break all kinds of sales marks as people try to get John Denver back into their lives.  This is a disappointing end to another Lions season.

The second game features bitter rivals.  The Cats and Hawks played one of the great grand finals in 1989 and have hated one another ever since.  Over 90,000 cram the MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground).  Can the Hawks continue their amazing form?  With five minutes left, the Hawks lead by 15 points.  The 8^th place miracle is set to continue.  But Tom Hawkins, in what might be his last year, kicks 3 goals to stun the Hawks as the Hawks go down to the Cats 131 – 130.  Yes, the Cats are doing it again.  They lose their first finals match only to kick butt in subsequent matches.  The Hawks fans are very angry but when all is said and done, they realize they had a great year.  This does not help, though, as Hawks fans blame the umpires for their loss.  That’s what you do when you lose by a point.  The fact the Hawks have reason to gripe is irrelevant as the Cats move on.

The Preliminary Finals

The Swans had a week off.  But all teams had a week off between the regular season and the finals, so it probably doesn’t matter.  These two teams played in the 2022 Grand Final and the Cats massacred the Swans to finally win a flag after 11 years mostly losing to my Tigers during that time.  So the Swans have every reason to get revenge.  Unfortunately for them, this match is a repeat as the Cats once again obliterate the Swans in Sydney 68 – 149.  This 81-point massacre is very disappointing considering the Swans finished on top of the ladder at season’s end.  The Cats meow their way into yet another Grand Final.

In the other game, the Port Adelaide Power play in front of over 50,000 screaming fans in Adelaide against the GWS giants.  The poor giants are lucky to have 5,000 people at their home games.  It makes you wonder whether this team can be viable.  But the Giants play hard despite this.  Port Adelaide remembers the last Preliminary Final they lost.  It was a 6-point heartbreaker at home against my tigers in 2020.  My Tigers went on to win the Grand Final that year and Port took a while to recover.  They looked to be on the brink of collapse this year and their coach was nearly run out of town.  But they began to win, and win, and coach went from goat to hero. 

But I sincerely hope coach Ken Hinkley has a house in another state because after the Power go down at home 43 – 156, Hinkley shouldn’t hang around to address the team.  He needs to get out of Adelaide as fast as he can, then have a company bring his family and belongings to him.  When the home team goes down by 113 points, fans get a little angry.  The fans of Adelaide’s other team, the Crows, are in raptures because they hate the Power more than any other team.  Civil war breaks out in South Australia and the Australian military is forced to to put an end to it.  It’s an ugly scene all around.

The Grand Final

The Giants, with all of their 5,674 fans make their way to the MCG to play the Cats in the Grand Final.  The Cats arrive with their 60,000 fans.  The rest of the 100,000 strong crowd is made up of Victorians who hate the Cats, so the crowd is slightly in Geelong’s favor.  The Giants have been close.  They even made it to the 2019 Grand Final but were blown out by 89 points against my tigers.  And yes, I’m going to mention my tigers winning championships whenever I can.  But they have been in the finals every year and I personally like them because despite having a small following, they play hard, and they play well.  Besides, their coach used to be an assistant coach for my Tigers when they won three premierships in four years.  The Cats are confident.  They have the crowd behind them.  But the Giants have had enough of losing.  They suffocate the explosive Cats and switch them off, winning the Grand Final 80 – 50.

Congratulations to the GWS Giants for winning their first ever Grand Final.  Here is their great theme song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27XRugei364

Next year, the giants will unfurl their Totally Random flag in front of their now 6,258 fans.  What a great day that will be for them.

My prediction for the real world is the Power.  Let the games begin!