Tuesday, March 17, 2015

The Completely Random NCAA Tournament




OK America it’s here.  It’s time for the Completely Random NCAA Men’s basketball tournament predictions.  I used a random number generator.  Absolutely no other analysis went into this and the random tournament doesn’t care that Kentucky has a real chance of going undefeated this year.

There were many highlights to the random tournament.  Three of the four No 1 seeds bowed out in the first round beaten by their No 16 opponents.  Since a one seed has never lost a first round match in NCAA history, this is truly remarkable.  The last one seed standing was Kentucky, but they joined the ranks of the defeated in the second round, going down to 9th seed Purdue 79 to 65 in a truly shocking result.  Of course, this isn’t shocking at all because all the scores were randomly generated.

There were two stunning standouts.  They were 16 seed Robert Morris and 15 seed North Dakota State.  Robert Morris made its way to the Sweet 16 before being knocked out by Georgetown.  But that pales to what North Dakota State accomplished.  They made it all the way to the Final Four before succumbing to 5 seed Arkansas.  They were tremendous in the random tournament.

But in the end, only one team can cut down the nets and that team was Notre Dame.  They were quietly efficient and methodical as they went through the random tournament.  They played Arkansas in the National Championship game and the Fighting Irish prevailed 87 – 77.  
Of course, I could run this through my program many times, but that takes away from the fun.  So I only run it through once.  This year, the national champions are Notre Dame and congratulations to them.

And with that, let the real March Madness begin!

Monday, February 2, 2015

some spiritual reflections on yesterday's Super Bow XLIX



After the conclusion of arguably the greatest football game ever played yesterday I was struck by the first interview with Rob Gronkowski, the New England Patriots tight end.  The NBC interviewer asked him how it felt to be a champion again.  “Again?” I said to myself?  Gronkowski has never known what it is like to win a championship.  Most Patriots, until yesterday, have never been on top of the football world.  In fact, for many of them, all they have experienced is one bitterly disappointing end to a season after another.

Fans follow their team through a period of many years, many decades for some.  Because of this, we tend to view the team as one continuous entity.  We wonder whether devastating losses are a result of bad football karma from previous years?  This may not be rational, but it is how many fans think.

I am a Cowboys fan because although my father was from Massachusetts, when I was very young, he was stationed in Florida.  He was in the Air Force.  All I saw were Cowboys and Dolphins games and being young, I did not know the Patriots existed.  So I went for the Cowboys.  As I grew older, I followed all the New England teams except for football.  Nevertheless, the Patriots are my second team and since the Cowboys have been mostly awful in the past two decades, they might as well be my first team, especially come playoff time.

In 1995 when the Cowboys played the Steelers in Super Bowl XXX, the Steelers were charging hard at the Cowboys.  They scored 10 unanswered points and when they forced Dallas to punt late in the game with only a three point lead, I became desperate.  Not again.  Why can’t we ever beat the Steelers I anguished to myself?  Watching the game with me was a much younger Cowboys fan who had never known the agony of the two Super Bowl losses to Pittsburgh we experienced in the 70’s.  He was freaking out at the prospect of seeing his Cowboys lose but he had no idea how freaked out older Cowboys fans were.  We hated Pittsburgh more than every other team and the prospect of losing to them a third time was just too much.  So in desperation, I turned to prayer.  I prayed aloud, “Oh football gods, please let Neil O’Donnell revert to his normal awful self and have mercy on us.”  The guy watching with me, a pastor in training, was in shock.  “What are you doing?” he asked.  He was even more shocked when my prayer was answered on the very next play, for it was then that O’Donnell, who was experiencing an unusually good run of quality play, threw the ball straight to the Cowboys Larry Brown.  I couldn’t believe my prayers had been answered.  Then, when rationality was restored to me, I realized my prayer to nonexistent gods had nothing whatsoever to do with the outcome.  But when a fan is caught up in the team, it is sometimes easy to imagine a higher power rules the destiny of a sports league.

On sleepless nights I wonder sometimes whether the Cowboys run of awful seasons and heart wrenching losses which snatch hope from its fans are a result of bad karma built up from the hubris of the glory days in the 90’s when the Cowboys were South America’s Team and swaggered their way from strength to strength.  After their 12-4 year this year I have wondered whether Jerry Jones finally repented and decided to build a team properly and whether that repentance has appeased the football gods.

Now imagine you are a patriots fan yesterday and you see that ridiculous catch at the end of the game which gives Seattle first and goal on the five.  I think all Patriots fans just went dead inside.  I remember thinking, “what sins have the Patriots committed to suffer yet another Super Bowl loss on a play so freakish as to defy belief?”  With all their success over the years, and their beat down of team after team after team, was it part of a grant plan to make the Patriots suffer with three gut wrenching losses?  But of course, as I said, most Patriots players have never known ultimate success so such questions do not apply to them.  But for fans?

I know this is completely irrational, but when Jermaine Kearse made that ridiculously improbable catch, a Bible text came to mind.

Comfort, O comfort my people,
says your God.
2 Speak tenderly to Jerusalem,
and cry to her
that she has served her term,
that her penalty is paid,
that she has received from the Lord’s hand
double for all her sins.
Isaiah 40:1-2 (New Revised Standard Version)
Everything was saying to me the Patriots were done.  Seattle would hammer Lynch into the line and it would be game over.  But this text made me wonder.  Have the Patriots paid for all their hubris?  Maybe that was the last punishment and maybe this time, the Patriots will hang on.  I have always believed they are innocent of Deflategate and with all the accusations, and that freakish Kearse catch maybe the torment price has finally been paid.  And so it came to pass.  The Patriots got a miracle interception, one that will be remembered by football fans forever, and the Brady Belichick Dynasty was made complete.
It is inevitable that when success comes to a team, some hubris will develop.  Some bragging will occur, and some insensitivity.  Hence it is easy to build up bad karma during times of prosperity.  So it is easy to imagine the bad times resulting from that hubris.  Most fans realize that eventually players get old and success gets you low draft picks which means the chances are the talent level will drop.  This means good teams eventually slide into being bad, and bad teams become good, unless you are the Cleveland Browns which are for some reason an exception to the natural order of things.  We understand this rationally, but many of us cannot help but feel there is a grand design for our teams which spans the decades.  It’s crazy, but it’s true.
I am sure one day Brady and Belichick will retire and the Patriots will have a few 5-11 years, and maybe even a 4-12 year or two.  Heck they had only one win for a season long, long ago.  And when that day comes, Patriot haters will rejoice because their enemy will have fallen.  I rejoiced when Bradshaw finally retired and the Steelers became irrelevant.  But after a while, I missed having someone evil to hate, though I suppose I did have the 49ers after the Catch game.  But here again, karma comes into play.  During the 70’s, the Cowboys knocked the 49ers out of the playoffs for three straight years, including one all time 49er choke job.  I lived near San Francisco and watched the Catch game with a 49ers crowd and the released euphoria when Dwight Clark made that catch was amazing to see.  All those years of pent up hatred were released in a moment for the ages.
And then Danny White hit Drew Pearson at midfield and the Cowboys were one play away from a winning field goal.  You could have heard cotton drop on a thick carpet.  And then, a few moans of “Oh God, not again.”  I was young in those days and I remember thinking, “yeah, the Cowboys will win like they always do and the 49ers will be where they belong during the Super Bowl, watching it on TV.  Thus has it always been.”  Yes I was proud and arrogant.  And I was wrong.  White fumbled on the next play and the 49ers started their 15 year period of greatness while the Cowboys started their long decline.
So yes, from a fan’s point of view, karma really does make sense, as irrational as that seems.  The football gods do seem to meet out justice and lift the downtrodden while humbling the lofty. . .unless you are the Cleveland Browns of course.  Perhaps sports theologians can figure out what Cleveland’s grand purpose is, but otherwise, there does seem to be a spiritual order and majesty to football and crazy idiot fans like me will continue to be drawn to it even though rationality says otherwise.
From a karmic point of view, Patriot haters may have longer to wait before they can rejoice because how can you not feel that any bad karma the Patriots accumulated over the years was paid, and the football gods have once again smiled on the Patriots?  I mean, if hollywood wrote that ending for a football movie, we would dismiss it as being too unrealistic.  I have watched football since 1971 and I have never seen anything like the last three minutes of that Super Bowl.  Whether sports karma exists or not, we sure witnessed one of the greatest football games of all time yesterday.  Both teams deserve applause.  There were mistakes yes, but it was well played and brilliantly coached on both sides and just when you thought the script had been written, random chance, fate, or the football gods, take your pick, stepped in and gave us one last shocking twist.  Whatever you believe, every football fan won yesterday, and won big.



Monday, January 26, 2015

My take on Deflategate - Before any NFL report



Like millions of Americans I have no idea what happened with regard to the deflated footballs the Patriots used during the first half of the AFC championship game.  On the surface, it looks bad for the Patriots.  Their footballs were deflated.  The Colts, on the other hand, did not suffer from this problem.  It is easy to conclude therefore that the Patriots cheated.  Playing with underinflated footballs gives you some advantages, namely that it is easier for everyone to grip and hold on to the ball.

So the Patriots launched their own internal explanation and found nothing.  What a surprise.  But before we consign them to the sports firing squad, we have to ask ourselves one simple question.  Is there an explanation for the Patriots having underinflated footballs naturally while the Colts did not?  That is, is there an explanation for this which does not involve the Patriots cheating?  Surprisingly yes, and you do not need to perform mental gymnastics for it either.

The required PSI for footballs is between 12.5 to 13.5.  Anything in that range is good.  So here is what could have happened.  The Colts might have preferred 13.5psi while the Patriots might have preferred 12.5psi.  Andrew Luck has big hands so this is quite possible.  During the course of the first half, the wet cold weather conditions caused air pressure in all footballs to drop.  A number of scientists have come forward to say this is precisely what happens.

Now it’s halftime.  Let’s say the pressure dropped around 1psi during the first half.  Because the Colts inflated at 13.5psi their footballs are now at 12.5psi which is still within the range.  But the Patriots who had theirs set to 12.5psi now have footballs at 11.5psi or thereabouts.  They are now under the required psi.  So the officials inflate the footballs back to 12psi to get them up to speed. 

With this explanation, the Patriots have done nothing wrong and the officials readjusted correctly during halftime.  I believe this is the most likely explanation.  Consider this.  Had the Patriots intended to cheat, surely they would have known NFL officials would check the footballs again at halftime.  Thus, they would have known they would be caught.  It would make much better sense to deflate the footballs AFTER the halftime check.  That way, the Patriots could have played with deflated footballs in the second half with no one ever being the wiser.  By “cheating” prior to kickoff, the Patriots only allowed themselves one half of advantage:  significant, but also stupid since they would have been found out at halftime. 

I think this explanation could be verified now quite easily with two pieces of information.

1.       What psi level did the Colts inflate their footballs too for the game?
2.       What was the Colts psi level at halftime?

This will tell us whether the natural “Patriots are innocent” explanation has any merit without having to wait for the full NFL report.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

A Solution for NBA Tanking



I have been an NBA fan all my life.  I am a Celtics fan and I started watching during the Dave Collins era.  As a Celtics fan I am used to winning.  But I am also realistic. I realize my Celtics are woeful this year and while I enjoy watching the young players, 82 games is a long, long time and my time is precious.  In short, it is hard to be motivated for the whole long season.

Recently, however, I have been more and more turned off to the NBA because of something I simply cannot or will not abide as a fan.  That something is season long tanking.  As an NFL fan as well as an NBA fan I can put up with tanking in the NFL because it’s really only for two weeks at the end of the season.  And even if a team tanked for all 16 weeks, which doesn’t happen, well that’s only 16 games worth of bad viewing where my team is concerned.  I can live with that.  But the NBA season is 82 freaking games long and quite frankly, I have better things to do than to watch garbage night in and night out.

My solution to tanking is not original, but I think it is the best way to solve this problem.  In the NBA 16 out of the 30 teams make the playoffs.  I believe teams 17-24 should play an Elite 8 style knock-out tournament for the top three draft picks.  Here is how it would work.  At a neutral site, the seeded tournament would work like the NCAA tournament.  After the first round, we are left with a final four.

The losers of the final four play for the third pick in a sort of consolation game while the winners go for the #1 pick.  The loser of the 3rd, fourth game would draft 4th in the upcoming draft and the draft order would proceed as normal from there.  This knock-out tournament would coincide with the first round of the real playoffs.  This solution has many advantages.

First, teams 25-30 have no chance of getting a top pick.  This means they should fight like mad to get into the tournament.  No more of this season long tanking crap.  It gives bad teams a reason to try to win and prevents a 76ers style team from taking the court.  Add to this the drama at the end of the season as teams scramble for those last lottery tournament positions.  So you accomplish two things during the regular season.  You discourage the blatant tanking that goes on now, and you give fans of bad teams something to look forward to and some excitement.  Suddenly a Knicks v 76ers game means something.

The actual lottery tournament itself would probably generate more excitement than the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.  I think fans would be very interested in how the tournament progresses.  It also gives fringe players a chance to showcase themselves on the national stage.  The NBA would get extra revenue and the TV networks would get decent ratings.  Finally, this gives top draft prospects a decent chance of going to halfway decent teams instead of the bottom feeders they are forced to join.    Such a tournament gives players, fans, coaches, and TV networks something positive.  Meanwhile the top 16 teams can play for the ultimate prize, the NBA championship as they always do. 

But will the really bad teams ever get off the bottom?  In this scenario, the 30th ranked team drafts 5th.  Not too bad really.  So they have a chance to build.  In addition, they might play in some meaningful games toward the end of the season which will give them experience playing games that matter, instead of the endless stream of meaningless games they play in now.  So all in all, there is no downside.