My take on Deflategate - Before any NFL report

Like millions of Americans I have no idea what happened with regard to the deflated footballs the Patriots used during the first half of the AFC championship game.  On the surface, it looks bad for the Patriots.  Their footballs were deflated.  The Colts, on the other hand, did not suffer from this problem.  It is easy to conclude therefore that the Patriots cheated.  Playing with underinflated footballs gives you some advantages, namely that it is easier for everyone to grip and hold on to the ball.

So the Patriots launched their own internal explanation and found nothing.  What a surprise.  But before we consign them to the sports firing squad, we have to ask ourselves one simple question.  Is there an explanation for the Patriots having underinflated footballs naturally while the Colts did not?  That is, is there an explanation for this which does not involve the Patriots cheating?  Surprisingly yes, and you do not need to perform mental gymnastics for it either.

The required PSI for footballs is between 12.5 to 13.5.  Anything in that range is good.  So here is what could have happened.  The Colts might have preferred 13.5psi while the Patriots might have preferred 12.5psi.  Andrew Luck has big hands so this is quite possible.  During the course of the first half, the wet cold weather conditions caused air pressure in all footballs to drop.  A number of scientists have come forward to say this is precisely what happens.

Now it’s halftime.  Let’s say the pressure dropped around 1psi during the first half.  Because the Colts inflated at 13.5psi their footballs are now at 12.5psi which is still within the range.  But the Patriots who had theirs set to 12.5psi now have footballs at 11.5psi or thereabouts.  They are now under the required psi.  So the officials inflate the footballs back to 12psi to get them up to speed. 

With this explanation, the Patriots have done nothing wrong and the officials readjusted correctly during halftime.  I believe this is the most likely explanation.  Consider this.  Had the Patriots intended to cheat, surely they would have known NFL officials would check the footballs again at halftime.  Thus, they would have known they would be caught.  It would make much better sense to deflate the footballs AFTER the halftime check.  That way, the Patriots could have played with deflated footballs in the second half with no one ever being the wiser.  By “cheating” prior to kickoff, the Patriots only allowed themselves one half of advantage:  significant, but also stupid since they would have been found out at halftime. 

I think this explanation could be verified now quite easily with two pieces of information.

1.       What psi level did the Colts inflate their footballs too for the game?

2.       What was the Colts psi level at halftime?

This will tell us whether the natural “Patriots are innocent” explanation has any merit without having to wait for the full NFL report.