Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Thoughts on Deflategate



Making sense of NFL punishments is hard to do because you can’t make any sense out of any of them.  The punishment handed down by the NFL against the Patriots for deflating footballs is completely beyond what it should be.  Back in November of 2015 the Panthers and Vikings were caught red handed heating footballs during the game.  This is a violation of NFL rules.  You cannot artificially affect game balls.  Their punishment?  None.  They received a warning and were allowed to continue..  Meanwhile the Patriots were accused of artificially affecting game balls.  Instead of heating them up, they were accused of deflating them.  Were they caught red handed?  No.  A massive investigation concluded it was more probable than not that they were guilty.  What punishment was given to the Patriots?  Was it just a warning?  No.  Instead, their quarterback was suspended for four games.  They lost a first and fourth round draft pick, and they were fined $1 million.

It is true that after the Vikings and Panthers tampered with the footballs, the league notified all teams so the Patriots along with everyone else were on notice not to mess with footballs.  But the NFL travelled a long way to go from “hey you naughty boys cut it out” to the loss of a first and fourth round pick, a major suspension, and $1 million in fines.

Meanwhile in Atlanta, the Falcons were found definitively guilty of pumping in fake crowd noise during home games.  This, of course, gives a distinct advantage to the home team.  Being the Falcons, though, it didn’t really matter much.  But still, they cheated.  They admitted guilt.  No “more probable than not” here.  We’re talking 100% guilty.  Their punishment?  They were fined $350,000 and lost a 5th round 2016 draft pick.;  Their team president was suspended from the competition committee for three months even though the investigation concluded he had no knowledge of the crowd noise.  Suspended from the competition committee.  Wow, what a stunning blow to the team.  But overall, I think that punishment was the most fair punishment of the lot.

And of course, the Cleveland Browns were fined $250,000 because their GM texted play recommendations to the coaching staff during the games.  Being Cleveland, though, no amount of cheating could actually help them win anything so the league let it go with a simple fine.

Some argue the Patriots were punished harshly for two reasons having nothing whatsoever to do with the actual deflation of the footballs.  These are:
·         The Patriots were not completely cooperative with the investigation.  Brady did not turn over his phone to investigators and they did not allow equipment personnel to have a second interview with the investigative team.
·         The Patriots are repeat offenders.

There is some merit to the notion if Brady had nothing to hide, he should have readily turned his phone over to investigators.  But let’s look at this more closely.  If the Wells report were an actual legal proceeding they could have subpoenaed the phone and emails.  But Brady would have had the chance to fully refute any adverse interpretations of those records.  More importantly, he would have been able to do his argument justice.  In the case of the Wells team, Brady would not have had this opportunity.  And given that the NFL gave the Panthers and Vikings a “knock it off” while launching a full blown mega investigation against the Patriots along with lots of public statements to this effect, the Patriots had every reason to think witch hunt.  And would any of us have turned over our phone to someone we thought was conducting a witch hunt?  Had the NFL simply said “Look guys, you read what we said about the ball heating episode in Minnesota yet you persisted in tampering with footballs.  We’re going to fine you” the story would have come and gone.  That is exactly what the NFL should have done.  It should be noted that NFL rules specifically address air pressure in footballs.  Violations of the rules in this regard results in a $25,000 fine.  That’s it.  No suspensions and no loss of draft picks is mandated for this offence.  The rules do allow the NFL to tack on a more severe punishment, but no one can seriously claim the rule violation is meant to allow the punishment actually meted out against the Patriots.   But instead of simply following their own written rules, the NFL launch a full-fledged investigation costing thousands of dollars as if the Patriots had breached national security.  And when all was said and done, Wells could not definitively conclude anything or, was not man enough to make a bold stand for fear of a lawsuit.  Either way, the Patriots were punished based on probability.

Brady was not obligated to turn over his phone.  He exercised his right not to do so.  Why then is Brady being punished for exercising his legal rights?  To top this all off, the Wells report specifically said the team and head coach had no idea anything was going on.  Why punish the team then based on this report?  The NFL was intent on punishing the Patriots regardless.  Their actions show this conclusively.  In effect, the NFL said this.  Hey Brady, the Wells report says you are more probably guilty than not so we’re going to hit you hard.  Hey Belichick and Patriots, the report says you’re innocent but we’re going to hit you hard because. . .well. . .just because. 

Who can possibly make sense of this?  They issue a warning to two teams for ball tampering and completely slam another for ball tampering even though the teams receiving the warnings were caught red handed while the one getting slammed has not actually been found definitively guilty. 

With respect to Brady not giving up his phone I have been confronted with the same situation except before the days of cell phones.  Back in 1992 I was involved in a court proceeding involving the Branch Davidian cult.  This was before the siege and therefore before the cult burst into public prominence.  The court proceeding was in family court and involved trying to get a little girl out of the cult.  I accused the cult of some really bad things and they exercised their right to defend themselves in court.  When I left the cult they had stolen a computer of mine on which I had written down some private philosophical musings in the form of notes.  I never distributed them because they were notes made to jog my memory should I ever get back to musing on those subjects.  This meant the notes were very disjointed to anyone else reading them, but made perfect sense to me.  This is why they were private.

When I was on the witness stand the lawyer for the Branch Davidian member brought these notes to light.  He read some passages and because they were disjointed to him and everyone else, accused me of taking drugs and being mentally unstable, and along with everything else evil about me according to the lawyer, this meant my testimony was worthless.  The lawyer did exactly what he should do in a court case.  He was a very good lawyer doing his job.  Never mind the documents were from a stolen computer and never mind the documents were private and meant only for myself.  In fact, the document represented thoughts which I did not necessarily actually agree with.  I was brainstorming as it were.  And somehow that was turned into me being on drugs and a crazy mentally unstable person.

But because this happened in a court room, the lawyer representing the plaintiff, for whom I was a witness, along with myself, was able to counter the arguments.  I was able to explain the context.  The judge accepted my interpretation and, in fact, called both lawyers to the bench and told the Branch Davidian lawyer his use of such tactics was irrelevant to the case.  That is when I knew we were going to win and the little girl in question would escape the cult. 

This happened in the days before social media and also before anyone knew of the cult.  IF this trial had happened a year later, the public might well have seen what the lawyer tried to use against me.  And the public would have jumped to all manner of conclusions. 

My point is, even if you think Brady is guilty, he was under no obligation to release private material to anyone.  He had every legal right not to do so and given his public prominence and what must have been his feeling of a witch hunt, I perfectly understand why he chose this course.  I understand that too many in the public Brady looks guilty for withholding this information.  In a legal proceeding, Brady would have had no choice.  But had he released his phone records to Wells, he would have been at their mercy and at the mercy of public opinion.  Brady would not have had his day in court so to speak.

Of course it is entirely possible Brady was guilty and he withheld the records precisely because they would prove his guilt.  But we don’t know this for certain.  It is equally possible Brady chose not to subject himself to false interpretations.  If a non binding investigative team had asked me to release all my computer files there is no way in hell I would have done so because I knew people reading some of the stuff on my computer would jump to the wrong conclusion.

We have a big problem in our society.  That problem is we think too highly of social media.  We pay too much attention to tweets and text messages without knowing the full context.  We pass judgments based on insufficient information despite the fact we live in an information age.  You can have lots of information and misinterpret it.  As someone once said “Logic is a systematic method of coming to the wrong conclusion with confidence.”  ( I wish I knew the author of this quotation).  It’s not that social media is wrong.  The problem is social media gives us the false illusion we know and understand a subject well.  In some cases, we might, but in many cases, we do not.  The above quote could as easily be reworded as “Social media is a communications phenomenon which facilitates coming to the wrong conclusion with confidence.”

It is clear to me the NFL paid attention to all those tweets and all those talking heads and meted out a punishment based on those things, and not on the merits of the case.  Brady is punished for exercising his legal rights.  The Patriots are punished harshly even though the report says they were innocent.  And the Patriots are being punished far more harshly than other teams who were definitively found guilty of cheating.  In what possible way is this fair?  The NFL needs to get its own house in order when it comes to meeting out discipline and not care about what’s out there on social media.

One might argue that a corporation has the right to protect its brand.  Yes they do, but we are talking about peoples’ reputation and livelihood here.  Brady can afford to go without four weeks of pay but can the equipment staff?  The NFL’s Mickey Mouse methodology for meeting out punishments is damaging to individuals and does not pay any attention to their legal rights.  And that is something they do not have the right to do.

Thursday, April 16, 2015

NBA Playoffs Random Tournament



Yesterday we saw the Totally Random NHL playoffs.  Today we have the Totally Random NBA playoffs.  While not quite as exciting as the NHL, the NBA is still good viewing.  In the Totally Random NHL playoffs, the top seeded Rangers took out the honors which is disappointing on two levels.  First, I hate the Rangers.  Second, you would think in a totally random tournament, the top seed wouldn’t win.  For the random World Cup, Spain was the winner.  At the time they were one of the top favourites.  So will we get chaos for this tournament?  The answer is yes and no.

Round 1
In the East:
Nets
2-4
Hawks
Celtics
4-2
Cavaliers
Bucks
2-4
Bulls
Wizards
4-2
Raptors

In the West:
Pelicans
2-4
Warriors
Mavericks
4-2
Rockets
Spurs
1-4
Clippers
Grizzlies
4-1
Blazers

Well what a stunning upset we have.  My Celtics nail LeBron and the Cavaliers in six and the games were not really that close.  The Celtics blew them away in some games and Cleveland had to fight hard just to get their two wins.  So far so good.  Meanwhile the West is as competitive as usual.  The Warriors take longer than I would expect to beat the Pelicans, but otherwise, any team in the West can beat any other team, so no upsets here even though two lower seeds win.

Round 2
East
Celtics
2-4
Hawks
Wizards
4-3
Bulls

West
Mavericks
4-3
Warriors
Grizzlies
4-1
Clippers

The Celtics obviously had a letdown after knocking off Vegas favourites the Cavaliers.  It showed against the Hawks though the Celtics went down fighting.

The real tear jerker happened to the Warriors.  They were up 3-1 but the Mavericks inflicted a great comeback on the Warriors to end their most promising season in forever.  Several years ago, you might recall in the real world, the 8th seed Warriors stunned the top seed Mavericks in the first round to cause weeping and gnashing of teeth in Dallas.  In the random world, the Mavericks return the favor.  Meanwhile both the Wizards and Grizzlies seem to be peaking at the right time showing very good form.

Conference Finals
Wizards
1-4
Hawks
Mavericks
2-4
Grizzlies

Oh no, will a top seed win the random tournament again?  The Wizards ran out of gas and the Hawks cruised with some truly monumental blowout victories.  Meanwhile the Grizzlies defence proved too much for the plucky Mavericks. 

NBA Finals
Grizzlies
0-4
Hawks

Yes folks, it happened again.  A top seeded team wins the Totally Random NBA Championship.  OK, we got a stunning upset thanks to the Celtics and the West certain lost its favourites.  But in the end, Totally Random goes Chalk.  So congratulations to the Atlanta Hawks.

In the real world I have a feeling the Warriors will go down at some stage and that will be sad because I love watching them play.  I have no idea who will win.  Will LeBron be enough to propel the Cavaliers to the title?  Will the city of Cleveland be able to cope with success seeing they haven’t had any since the Dark Ages?  It would be some party if the Cavaliers can pull it off. 

I think it will be Spurs Cavaliers in the finals and perhaps the Spurs end an era with one more for the road.  I’m personally going for the Celtics of course, but since they won’t win it all, Go Warriors!

For now, though, it’s all random and the Hawks are the champions.

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

NHL Playoffs Random Tournament



At long last, the most exciting time of the sports year is here.  That’s right, it is the National Hockey league playoffs.  If you follow a team, then nothing beats the NHL playoffs for drama and an increased risk of suffering a heart attack.  I am still haunted by my Bruins double overtime loss to the Blackhawks in game 5 of the 2013 Stanley Cup.  My heart will not be at risk this year because the Bruins won’t be gracing the playoffs with their presence.  But for everyone else who has a team in the playoffs, it’s time to make sure your heart medication is nearby and perhaps start attending yoga classes to help you relax and unwind after each game. 
You never know what will happen.  As some of you know, I like to run a random tournament before playoffs or finals and the NHL is no exception.  Since people say the NHL playoffs are like a crapshoot, what better place for a completely random tournament.  The predictions made here have nothing whatsoever to do with records, home ice, history or anything remotely resembling good analysis.  The results are purely random.  However, as we shall see, the predicted random NHL playoff winner has a very good chance of winning the real thing, so perhaps you should run to your nearest gambling outlet, be it online or at a physical location, and wager your house on the winner.  So here goes.
Round 1
In the east we have the following.
Senators
2-4
Canadiens
Islanders
4-2
Capitals
Penguins
2-4
Rangers
Red Wings
2-4
Lightning

While in the West:
Blackhawks
4-3
Predators
Flames
1-4
Canucks
Wild
3-4
Blues
Jets
2-4
Ducks

No real shockers here.  The Penguins put up a good battle against the Rangers, probably more than I would expect, but otherwise, the East is positively predictable.  In the West again no real shockers.  Personally I would like to attend a Calgary Vancouver game in either arena because I imagine it will be war.  And I can’t help but think MontrĂ©al will get special joy out of inflicting the inhabitants of Canada’s capital with misery and disappointment.  But really, no surprises despite the completely random nature of the tournament.
Round 2
In the East
Islanders
1-4
Rangers
Lightning
4-0
Canadiens

Meanwhile in the West:
Canucks
4-1
Ducks
Blackhawks
3-4
Blues

We have some surprises here.  That Tampa Bay defeats MontrĂ©al is not really surprising especially when we consider that in the real world, the Lightning seem to have their number.  But a sweep?  To see Lightning dominance actually reflected in a random tournament is kind of frightening.  And I would say round 2 gives us our first real upset with Vancouver knocking off Anaheim.  Meanwhile the Blackhawks go down fighting as we would expect.

The all New York series proves pretty one sided.  If this situation arises in the real world, I’m all Islanders, all the way in terms of who I want to win, but I think the Rangers would win the series just as the random tournament predicts.

Conference Finals

Lightning
2-4
Rangers
Canucks
2-4
Blues

I believe the winners here would actually be favoured if this situation eventuates.  No one can seem to stop the Rangers this year and the Blues are kind of the team no one really thinks too much about but here they are representing the West in the Stanley Cup final.  Vancouver experiences another frustrating year and must still wait in hope for their first Cup.

Stanley Cup Final
Blues
1-4
Rangers

In a somewhat lopsided series, the Rangers are able to take the final step they failed to take last year and win their first Cup in forever.  This sucks!  I hate the Rangers.  But there it is, your 2015 Stanley Cup champions the Rangers.  Of course, in the real world, the Rangers are the one seed in the East and have the most points in the NHL this year so despite the fact these predictions are completely random, the top team emerges the winner.  This is why you should put the house on the Rangers.  If they can win a random tournament, they can certainly win the real thing.  And though I hate to admit it, my prediction in the real playoffs is that the Rangers will win it all this year.  May this not happen.  But regardless of what happens, may the fun and stress begin!